TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,561,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,242,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,561,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0eb5…c494backed Yes77c1,637,618$1,268,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268,050.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No23c300,000$68,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231,499.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe26c…88cfbacked No23c243,442$55,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,349.22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No22c223,500$49,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174,329.952740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No23c190,000$43,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146,299.953429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No23c150,000$34,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,749.974042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de4…b032backed No23c150,000$34,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,499.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+113%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed No22c128,205$28,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,999.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No23c100,978$23,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,814.524740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No43c89,807$38,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,518.243,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes78c86,110$67,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,226.397538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No22c56,918$12,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,396.041747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed No21c41,500$8,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,784.612222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No23c38,500$8,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,771.812951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes18c30,337$5,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,381.22,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No36c28,159$10,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,909.751,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No23c26,010$5,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,027.593154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf344…9a04backed No22c25,800$5,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,1241163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes56c23,319$12,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,984.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+106.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No22c21,984$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,171.97255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Yes36c20,000$7,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,258.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No32c19,183$6,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,080.766755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No23c19,145$4,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,733.413063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+50.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No20c18,954$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,163.05540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+181.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No31c18,542$5,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,720.9348141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed No67c17,685$11,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,846.82070%14 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No68c17,146$11,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,442.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes1c16,944$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.141764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+67.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed No22c16,815$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,115.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a8c…1991backed Yes2c16,368$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.341060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No47c14,493$6,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,681.196251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9828…0f7ebacked No22c14,272$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,132.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes78c14,158$11,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,084.876761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed No22c13,636$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,636.358448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc253…7cf5backed No21c12,828$2,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,134.181241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No22c10,120$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,893.62035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Yes10c10,053$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.2114315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ee0…9c9abacked No22c9,600$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,487.941250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+41.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes62c9,400$5,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8456762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No42c8,709$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.3240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No21c8,485$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,704.33132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Yes54c8,458$4,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,580.72425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked No67c7,997$5,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.911258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes78c7,991$6,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,272.72857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes1c7,916$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.626010%6 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+119.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c8…68f0backed Yes80c7,782$6,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,190.88475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+8.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No21c7,777$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,143.669831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f1d…3ca2backed Yes0c7,489$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes74c7,472$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed No23c7,391$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,691.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No61c7,317$4,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.331136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No37c7,299$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,633.161,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba23…0b69backed Yes76c7,136$5,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.31346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No24c6,876$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,225.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed No20c6,542$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,233.693525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d9c…4695backed Yes59c6,509$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.31933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Yes0c6,348$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Yes79c6,329$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Yes61c6,285$3,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,846.252556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eed…64c2backed Yes80c6,250$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes47c6,056$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.812737%10 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8db…ccfbbacked Yes79c5,650$4,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.52055%11 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4028…5f4abacked Yes72c5,630$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,05410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No41c5,318$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,140.856051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes79c5,263$4,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,177.7628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No23c5,239$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked No22c5,160$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,024.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick38cpaid+117.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfb45…74dfbacked Yes79c5,140$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,07910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a5…f586backed Yes78c5,130$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed Yes77c5,065$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…c875backed Yes66c5,003$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6adf…4f5bbacked Yes80c4,940$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes42c4,868$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.5610641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes80c4,768$3,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,814.194772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes78c4,762$3,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,736.81875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No22c4,545$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,545.117247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes23c4,500$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.1811142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc8backed Yes56c4,449$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes14c4,199$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.8564043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked Yes78c4,140$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.53850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Yes61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,440333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…bb92backed Yes79c4,000$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,16020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes51c4,000$2,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed3…2811backed Yes79c3,927$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No17c3,880$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,239.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yes53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-63.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes53c3,742$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7587…3afebacked Yes77c3,681$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No32c3,607$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.833737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No22c3,417$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.1216652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Yes58c3,259$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.791060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7002…395cbacked Yes77c3,247$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8682…15a9backed Yes57c3,233$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.391266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes78c3,215$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.443345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8562…ad77backed Yes61c3,200$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes66c3,169$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.591942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed No23c3,061$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.022540%10 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a23…8ef9backed Yes58c3,009$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+285.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Yes73c2,986$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1702975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe84c…5269backed Yes79c2,914$2,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,292.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.