TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked No68c21,183$14,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,420.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes32c16,201$5,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,972.1322669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No71c8,239$5,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,850.0911356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes27c6,704$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,884.269476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No73c5,135$3,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,728.179354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Yes14c4,000$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,421.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+130.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes25c3,917$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.5864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes13c3,870$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,367.281,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Yes26c3,816$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,823.973125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5a…0122backed Yes28c2,862$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Yes14c2,381$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.62138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes36c2,111$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.044772.3%34 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No79c2,063$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.777750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Yes31c2,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes68c1,817$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.633953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b6…c914backed Yes29c1,647$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No79c1,538$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.116060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7587…3afebacked Yes27c1,481$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes23c1,448$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.773,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No74c1,305$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.861,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Yes31c1,290$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No75c1,262$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.2849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No76c1,251$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.777255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No77c1,191$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.0853140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6903548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x174f…2dabbacked Yes27c987.96$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked No73c973.02$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.786564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes13c924.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.7369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed26…6282backed No71c844.25$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes36c837.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.524132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes18c800$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6535024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb553…457bbacked Yes19c779.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.761136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes27c740.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.74520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454b…5b8bbacked Yes14c715$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.91637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes14c700$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+83.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No42c689.09$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.4540744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes23c655.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.594030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Yes38c653.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.4910943.1%47 W · 62 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…c55dbacked Yes14c642.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick14cpaid+315.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes36c625$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes32c625$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4253036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2a…420abacked Yes26c615.38$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.38450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78fc…8c88backed No16c601.25$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+123.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Yes19c600$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.37per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked No76c586$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.282437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc011…0a62backed Yes31c519.41$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x621e…6510backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes10c490.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.017935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e6…b9f9backed Yes22c466$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+84.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes11c454.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.551127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+55.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No78c429.21$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.062060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Yes26c419.23$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7577…8fb9backed Yes10c411.34$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.651050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+164.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f0c…ba73backed Yes24c400$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7521…9997backed Yes23c338$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+117.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes19c337$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.6214652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes19c327.42$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.566227.4%17 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes22c324.88$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.82343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f70…ce77backed No19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x845a…37acbacked No19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18910251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcff0…fa1abacked No19c299.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5760%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Yes24c291.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+83.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecab…e8d4backed Yes15c285.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+321.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd83c…6b83backed Yes23c265.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+78%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854949%24 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e1…7b41backed Yes26c247.79$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.811546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes24c246.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.786232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Yes25c240$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66d4…fe2dbacked Yes26c236$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…9727backed Yes26c219.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes23c217.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Yes13c217$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.793132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes23c216.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.066443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5668…eababacked Yes27c203.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Yes37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec44…d3bbbacked No74c199.44$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed Yes31c196.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9412141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…4b19backed Yes26c192.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…05a3backed Yes12c189.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+42.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes20c177.1$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…0262backed Yes17c176.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.474524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a4d…eff0backed Yes26c174.12$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa366…1e3abacked Yes32c171.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No68c170.52$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.574153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes33c168.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x903e…2829backed Yes30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes27c166.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa23…7afabacked Yes14c164.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a6…fec7backed No77c158.74$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes32c154.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8512635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes23c150$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d85…5c50backed Yes13c148.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.351030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+49.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9de1…2dd4backed Yes24c145.67$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+180.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb00d…69c8backed Yes26c136.38$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fd2…f9aebacked Yes30c135.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.291838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb67c…4532backed Yes26c134.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7543…c83ebacked Yes22c131.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+94.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.