Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x578f5f3b26b8225c812015d17138c2bd2f28bee7993364f69752be72dce21d6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 50c | 11,984$5,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,003.43 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 3,629$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.78 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 70c | 2,931$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.92 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 62c | 2,153$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.63 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 49c | 2,005$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.66 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 57c | 1,826$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 49c | 1,483$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,424$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.77 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 38c | 1,243$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.75 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 33c | 1,237$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 43c | 1,167$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.28 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 33c | 1,125$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,033$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.8 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 65c | 1,019$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.57 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 55c | 999.64$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.09 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 67c | 934$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 57c | 892.45$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.17 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9364…b9c2backed Yes | 33c | 859.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 841.48$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.08 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 52c | 834.82$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.86 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes | 43c | 720$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed No | 57c | 720$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 672.63$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes | 43c | 642$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 51c | 624$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 65c | 621.37$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.69 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes | 59c | 612.77$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb10…bd85backed Yes | 26c | 611.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 43c | 603$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 43c | 602$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 57c | 602$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 59c | 598.88$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 43c | 581$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…9e4ebacked No | 22c | 575.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 36c | 570.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.91 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 39c | 529.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 525.24$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.59 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 51c | 517$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 494.91$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 466.58$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.9 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 67c | 461$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 55c | 457$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 67c | 456$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…f378backed No | 56c | 446.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +402.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 41c | 445.47$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.46 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 69c | 434.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 413.37$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 50c | 392.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 37c | 383.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 51c | 382$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…7751backed Yes | 53c | 380.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked Yes | 45c | 367.42$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…f512backed Yes | 40c | 348.24$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed Yes | 36c | 342.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 335.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 68c | 322.08$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 318.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.14 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 79c | 316.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…f391backed Yes | 33c | 305.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 67c | 303$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes | 58c | 299$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…058dbacked Yes | 80c | 297.86$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 50c | 294$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 292.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.83 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc57…b610backed Yes | 37c | 269.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 263.51$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…8b0abacked Yes | 38c | 263.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 45c | 262$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…444bbacked Yes | 69c | 258.15$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…73babacked No | 41c | 246.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 40c | 229.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…a1cebacked No | 44c | 229.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 43c | 213.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 67c | 208$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 41c | 202$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 59c | 202$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 38c | 199.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 75c | 196$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 195.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 33c | 191.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.1 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked No | 69c | 186.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…af55backed Yes | 27c | 182.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…5176backed Yes | 76c | 182.22$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…5d2cbacked Yes | 56c | 180.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 17c | 179.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 42c | 179.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.59 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8f…8bcbbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 37c | 172.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 172.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 49c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 164.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…9da7backed No | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…116bbacked Yes | 35c | 161.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.