Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027b8d3b2f68a0f78ca5afec04ef182f3a6e9dd8a35dc572162dfe4483c89542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57c8…a12fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,562$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…6f81backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…1c54backed Yes | 6c | 1,760$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 51c | 979$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 775.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…352ebacked Yes | 8c | 693.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 649$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 14c | 647$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed No | 49c | 599$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 49c | 467$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 51c | 463$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 49c | 412$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 5c | 377.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 70c | 358.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 333.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 304.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 302.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 14c | 271$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 216.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 14c | 169$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8131…000abacked Yes | 15c | 166.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 151.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed Yes | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed No | 39c | 120$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 26c | 119.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…59dcbacked Yes | 20c | 77.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eea…2802backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 78c | 34.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 34.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…68bfbacked Yes | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 43c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.