TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf0a2…a2e1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: MLB, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 52 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.9
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.2
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$120
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+92.3%+$18.46
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+25.9%+$114.12
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+521.1%+$83.9
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.86
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advancebacked Paraguay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+85.6%+$23.11
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$34.07
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$27.86
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.42
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.03
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
National Bank Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguetbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalininabacked Sloane Stephens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Pacersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricketlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.