Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178fe01d601def6e00ca003749cb7eec73719393351f6e1d55134c0f457cfdd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x626d…ff68backed No | 0c | 143,733$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…ce02backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…841fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked No | 8c | 8,856$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.13 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725e…c8b2backed No | 0c | 8,612$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,575$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,652.76 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,483$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,014.66 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 6c | 4,650$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,390.88 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,776$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.14 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…d2bfbacked No | 0c | 3,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 18c | 3,129$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,572.42 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,987$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.35 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…be97backed Yes | 12c | 2,100$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 13c | 2,096$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,045$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,866$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.39 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,824$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.33 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 18c | 1,343$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.97 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,129$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…b52cbacked No | 1c | 1,096$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,077$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.08 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 993.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.06 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 914.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.9 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 10c | 800$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 9c | 755.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.56 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…66e6backed Yes | 7c | 707$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.51 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 700$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 19c | 689.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 650.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.74 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 19c | 650$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 13c | 633.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.44 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 8c | 625.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.04 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 79c | 600$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 14c | 599.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…f85dbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 34c | 515$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +254.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 21c | 506.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.75 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.44 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 36c | 441.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.64 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 19c | 400$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 391.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.05 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 11c | 389.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…5f61backed No | 66c | 365$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 34c | 365$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 11c | 351.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.53 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 350$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 80c | 340.71$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 66c | 304$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfe…c0adbacked Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 17c | 297.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.79 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 19c | 280$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.4 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 14c | 277.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 260.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe1…985cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +383.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 6c | 230.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 17c | 222$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.74 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 66c | 211$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 10c | 204.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aec…5eb9backed Yes | 12c | 201.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +746.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…04febacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc795…7a2dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed No | 78c | 190$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +322%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 182.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.29 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 8c | 174.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.84 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…6132backed Yes | 22c | 148.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 137.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…15a9backed Yes | 8c | 136.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 133.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 79c | 125.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…962dbacked Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 101$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 23c | 100.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…3173backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.53 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 78c | 94.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 11c | 94.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…8803backed Yes | 22c | 92.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 20c | 88.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 17c | 82.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 23cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…e478backed Yes | 18c | 82.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 23c | 66.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…248bbacked No | 19c | 57.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?this page
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.