Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc995f389c25925a646c118fa853abfa69cdf4b13a409c9f74b0e9620ef67ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $469,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 43,494$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked No | 0c | 35,444$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 15c | 31,000$4,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657.07 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 47c | 28,311$13,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,288.54 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…dd0bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…7c55backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62c…bea3backed No | 0c | 7,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 53c | 6,584$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.41 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 28c | 6,243$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,477.07 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,167$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,721.94 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 48c | 4,660$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.21 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 30c | 4,144$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.52 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 53c | 4,124$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 3c | 3,630$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 31c | 3,578$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.4 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…d2bfbacked No | 1c | 2,704$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 40c | 2,581$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 56c | 2,482$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.56 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 58c | 2,166$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked Yes | 47c | 2,111$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.24 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,992$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.52 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…4892backed No | 10c | 1,943$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,801$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.35 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,635$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,602$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.99 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…7a83backed No | 59c | 1,597$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…a7fcbacked Yes | 38c | 1,495$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.69 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,439$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.67 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 73c | 1,393$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked No | 55c | 1,298$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed Yes | 40c | 1,213$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 79c | 1,200$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.05 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 10c | 1,146$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.46 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 77c | 1,140$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 42c | 1,053$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.88 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…1088backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714b…d071backed No | 53c | 958.16$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.87 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +154%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…05cfbacked Yes | 74c | 954.87$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 54c | 947.93$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.53 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 48c | 921.61$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.75 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 17c | 901$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 13c | 825$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 738.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.19 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 677.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 51c | 674.25$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.25 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 17c | 670$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed Yes | 52c | 650$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 8c | 600$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 56c | 596.05$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 53c | 582.27$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.86 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 51c | 549.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.2 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 54c | 527.75$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 39c | 527.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.74 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 80c | 482.14$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.19 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 70c | 459.31$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd020…2d96backed Yes | 78c | 457.01$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 17c | 446$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 412.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.69 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 12c | 407.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 18c | 404$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed No | 32c | 400$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 42c | 359.35$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 317.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 13c | 306.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…caf4backed Yes | 70c | 287.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 56c | 274$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…6e12backed Yes | 39c | 272.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 13c | 257$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 29c | 251.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.12 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 16c | 249.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…4d0bbacked Yes | 42c | 239.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed Yes | 60c | 215.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 79c | 211.67$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…4336backed No | 20c | 207.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…e696backed Yes | 14c | 173.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked Yes | 58c | 172.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…c6bbbacked Yes | 77c | 164.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 144.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 143.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…5d37backed Yes | 73c | 137.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…b18bbacked Yes | 73c | 117.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0671…962dbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 16c | 109.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.06 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 63c | 104.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…b569backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…ea74backed Yes | 67c | 94.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?this page
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.