Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a51e1c61ad85d8082c4d51dcfbd63e5120bb0cbbfc54df3f589c3566faf8488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,046 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3b4…8bf7backed Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 56c | 1,412$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 15c | 1,400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 75c | 1,352$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 23c | 1,160$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.57 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 14c | 1,097$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 1,094$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.89 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 44c | 1,071$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 49c | 1,068$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,068$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd11…18f6backed No | 2c | 943.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 69c | 800$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 66c | 773$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 34c | 773$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 19c | 767.15$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed No | 12c | 616.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 593.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…a3c5backed No | 36c | 558.28$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 51c | 554$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…7f65backed No | 72c | 552.45$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed Yes | 51c | 514$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 511.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 80c | 499.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 33c | 470.22$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 15c | 459.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…3e21backed No | 5c | 453.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 4c | 402.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…495dbacked No | 70c | 400.42$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 40c | 372.64$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 35c | 370.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 20c | 368.79$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 28c | 359.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 6c | 347.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 346$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 44c | 341$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 40c | 338.73$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 50c | 323.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…0664backed No | 61c | 320.04$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 55c | 313.88$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.11 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 69c | 290.74$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed No | 35c | 275$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 65c | 274$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 65c | 272$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 35c | 271$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 59c | 255.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 35c | 228$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 65c | 228$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 73c | 225.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 48c | 223.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 28c | 217.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…3bc7backed No | 23c | 214.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…e1dcbacked No | 47c | 203.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…953fbacked No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…0e63backed No | 15c | 194.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…3d92backed No | 27c | 187.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 34c | 186.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 41c | 183.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106c…b5cbbacked No | 62c | 150.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 19c | 145.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 32c | 144.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 54c | 131.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a48cbacked No | 33c | 124.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 51c | 124$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 49c | 124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…f7c0backed No | 44c | 120.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked No | 35c | 119.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 109.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d435backed No | 53c | 106.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…d7e2backed No | 70c | 100.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 73c | 98.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 88.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…d45fbacked Yes | 59c | 85.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked No | 74c | 80.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0595backed Yes | 41c | 77.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…4ba8backed No | 37c | 76.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622d…df29backed No | 55c | 74.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 33c | 71.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd910…187abacked No | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 77c | 66.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 65.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…d2ddbacked No | 32c | 61.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…09c2backed No | 33c | 61.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b1…0924backed Yes | 58c | 60.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…f53abacked No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 66c | 58.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 57.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed No | 52c | 53.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…8607backed No | 33c | 52.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…34d8backed No | 75c | 52.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 31c | 47.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 55c | 46.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 69c | 44.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.