Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f80c8e8ca060436b60aa03d66fe40a5e0437b18a43cf0a0d6798f09c7f054b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,226 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec1f…d325backed No | 0c | 2,111$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 2,039$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,265$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 20c | 1,199$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 24c | 652$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 76c | 652$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 80c | 604$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 80c | 599$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 80c | 595$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 20c | 588$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 20c | 581$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 80c | 570$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 24c | 555$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 76c | 555$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 19c | 514$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 492.72$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 9c | 453$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…d7e2backed No | 22c | 367.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 21c | 352.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 9c | 335$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 316.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 79c | 306.44$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 16c | 286$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 76c | 279$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 16c | 276$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 19c | 255.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 197.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 160.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 22c | 159.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…495dbacked No | 24c | 152.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 24c | 147$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 24c | 132$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed No | 19c | 131.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked No | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0595backed No | 29c | 87.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 18c | 78.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 22c | 76.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 70.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 20c | 62.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.