TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,688,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,407,659

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,688,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 808 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b9a…0a63backed No0c5,090,000$5,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,09010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a1…43fdbacked No0c1,500,000$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d9c…6fddbacked No0c766,362$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.211747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x341c…ca1dbacked No0c529,331$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4311…5137backed No0c503,360$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.79911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No0c452,607$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.323429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c425,412$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.41350%0 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2af6…7cb7backed No0c422,412$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.11030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4940…52efbacked No0c382,345$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3211414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1f…9685backed No0c345,130$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked No0c312,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1322…a264backed No0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed No0c295,219$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.221931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a9…8266backed No0c210,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d22…7db5backed No0c200,700$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d5…b9f8backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed No0c174,702$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…8841backed No0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efb…c577backed No0c140,060$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.56150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked No0c139,684$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b20…e93ebacked No0c123,450$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898e…99adbacked No0c122,500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed No0c116,500$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed No0c114,335$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.672842.9%12 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-8.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a9a…3d9fbacked No5c110,650$5,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,402.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a57…4a6fbacked No0c110,239$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x083a…0f55backed No0c104,175$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked No0c102,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x554b…8216backed No0c100,425$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed No0c100,380$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd7…6497backed No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No19c94,143$17,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,959.053933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed Yes69c93,433$64,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,860.3312654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8db5…6489backed No0c88,000$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c49…a8fcbacked Yes58c85,100$49,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,7421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eda…cc4dbacked No42c85,100$35,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,74210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b51…407dbacked No0c84,445$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe96f…cfdfbacked No0c82,540$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe359…4515backed No1c81,582$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689d…66e8backed No1c80,045$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.381323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68d…cbeebacked No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a3…2080backed No0c79,820$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No0c77,986$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.998833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked No0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8704…085abacked No0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7840…1039backed No0c72,399$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef8c…8550backed No0c71,605$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc175…9233backed No0c69,320$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca81…4ccfbacked No0c65,500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed No1c60,071$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.0110227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed No5c56,128$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.47280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed No0c55,760$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x353b…1244backed No1c55,099$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…8c8ebacked No1c55,037$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…9a40backed No0c54,195$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d7…3279backed No0c52,995$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4a…1175backed No0c51,930$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…3165backed No0c51,483$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc46d…04c1backed No0c51,380$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x777a…0e5ebacked No0c50,920$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.841050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d98…c8ddbacked No1c50,588$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4059…3371backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8e…7602backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed No1c49,827$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.036546.2%30 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05de…c67fbacked No0c49,550$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No3c49,394$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.8116041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c00…cb2bbacked No0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No0c48,640$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bb9…8b68backed No0c47,990$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57c…0652backed No0c47,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535e…ccd9backed No0c46,407$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.981435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x801e…d026backed No0c44,900$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9d…0effbacked No1c42,443$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1de…5675backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No0c40,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63e1…2ebabacked No0c39,955$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a6…2894backed No0c39,855$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe00…88a9backed No0c39,540$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed No11c38,922$4,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,277.23922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfde5…4d9dbacked No0c38,370$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…ed23backed No0c38,200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb13…8c5dbacked No3c35,943$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec36…78bbbacked No3c34,546$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…93a1backed No0c32,235$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c28…12dabacked No0c32,040$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8a…2244backed No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+532.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x309f…b99cbacked No0c30,687$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.651741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…5931backed No1c30,617$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked No0c30,234$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2468.7%4 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528d…4585backed No0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f7…5d56backed No0c29,455$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.911010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5e…026ebacked No0c29,187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…23c8backed No0c28,206$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.432128.6%6 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-57.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ab9…1181backed No0c26,922$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.56911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa32a…fa83backed No4c26,793$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52e…2ad2backed No0c26,340$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bf…3f74backed No0c26,052$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8324…57fdbacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3551…459fbacked No0c24,780$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb8…cf89backed No1c22,971$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.599348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.