Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f981e59143c03dfc3301b8b18a3ab323048c5fd0b1e78608ea85d0f360e67c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $694,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $670,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 330 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 4c | 266,285$10,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,259.36 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 4c | 26,849$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.82 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 12c | 22,039$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,712.58 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…8c80backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 14,455$9,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,372.13 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 0c | 13,810$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…b99cbacked Yes | 47c | 11,035$5,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,886.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…0effbacked No | 20c | 11,012$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed No | 1c | 10,920$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 30c | 7,760$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,436.82 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 20c | 7,527$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.56 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 15c | 7,333$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 6,729$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.85 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed Yes | 56c | 4,300$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 25c | 4,272$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.26 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 56c | 3,642$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.65 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…4668backed No | 2c | 3,450$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 7cpaid | +378.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…9750backed Yes | 38c | 3,306$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 33c | 3,201$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.88 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 24c | 3,000$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.01 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 23c | 2,972$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.9 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed No | 55c | 2,934$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 7c | 2,854$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 43c | 2,744$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.66 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 35c | 2,714$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eeb…bd84backed No | 39c | 2,655$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 8c | 2,622$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed No | 13c | 2,521$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.73 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 66c | 2,466$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.37 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 2,463$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.48 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed Yes | 25c | 2,354$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 47c | 2,348$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.15 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 26c | 2,303$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.38 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 37c | 2,105$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.54 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 2c | 2,097$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 53c | 2,078$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.2 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 67c | 2,015$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.04 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 3c | 2,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7e87backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…b67abacked No | 2c | 1,900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 69c | 1,808$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.09 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 72c | 1,647$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…6ffabacked Yes | 31c | 1,600$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 62c | 1,599$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.33 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…a0c6backed No | 13c | 1,583$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,531$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…64a1backed No | 55c | 1,426$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked No | 1c | 1,419$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 80c | 1,416$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.47 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed No | 4c | 1,345$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 64c | 1,300$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 14c | 1,259$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.78 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…8641backed Yes | 74c | 1,248$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed No | 1c | 1,215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 11c | 1,207$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 35c | 1,163$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.52 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,120$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.27 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…8165backed Yes | 41c | 1,100$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 27c | 1,096$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.22 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 40c | 1,084$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.77 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed No | 70c | 1,061$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.81 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 19c | 1,000$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 77c | 985.95$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 24c | 937.86$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.15 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 823.52$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.23 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 25c | 813.9$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.51 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 21c | 810.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 60c | 810.12$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.78 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…534ebacked Yes | 66c | 806.59$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 71c | 792.73$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.41 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 72c | 750$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 28c | 727.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 70c | 707.52$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 18c | 700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…4c62backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 25c | 686.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 659.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.87 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…af3cbacked No | 24c | 655.51$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed Yes | 80c | 645.81$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 77c | 637.38$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed No | 24c | 613.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked No | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed Yes | 43c | 599.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 599.98$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.49 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 44c | 595$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.53 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 9c | 580.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…da6cbacked Yes | 76c | 576.24$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 70c | 571.83$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.83 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 30c | 570.93$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.85 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4bbebacked Yes | 50c | 550$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 14c | 540.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 54c | 534.65$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.12 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?this page
- US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.