Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf93d7733c9a59ab9ade3e55d35c940a250609a67be86f00b9c9ceb02d08f5dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 39c | 1,508$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed No | 69c | 1,186$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 21c | 905$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 14c | 796$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 688.75$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 28c | 674$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 72c | 674$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.72 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 69c | 672.01$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 61c | 644$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 31c | 630$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 79c | 624$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 61c | 610$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 31c | 605$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 79c | 591$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 69c | 465$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 31c | 465$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2a…ab9fbacked No | 69c | 354.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 21c | 310$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 61c | 254$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 27c | 183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 151.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed No | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 53c | 115.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9699…b8fdbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked No | 66c | 75.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…3ee4backed Yes | 32c | 74.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed No | 69c | 57.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 27c | 54.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed No | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf544…8822backed Yes | 39c | 37.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…56ecbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 66c | 27.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…27bcbacked No | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 73c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.