Weather · resolved market
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0737c07451043c7ed08cc8aaaeb950975a1e13e3bc359ef8c26c7961690bbea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 2c | 2,222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 38c | 1,531$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 33c | 1,524$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 33c | 1,398$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.23 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 63c | 1,314$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 67c | 1,237$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 61c | 1,222$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 67c | 1,110$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 63c | 1,084$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.51 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…d091backed No | 2c | 1,061$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 39c | 968$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 39c | 905$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked No | 39c | 876$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 39c | 857$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 61c | 857$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 39c | 754$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 2c | 748.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 61c | 730$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 61c | 716$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 61c | 711$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed No | 2c | 704.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 688.33$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.79 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 4c | 586.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 67c | 583$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 62c | 543$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 38c | 543$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 65c | 539$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 35c | 538$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5442…1f90backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 61c | 340$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 31c | 267.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 65c | 243.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 61c | 228$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 57c | 188.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…3f8dbacked No | 34c | 162.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5433…db00backed No | 62c | 162$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 77c | 125.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 36c | 118$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 70c | 104.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…abd2backed No | 45c | 103.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…d982backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked No | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…c9d7backed No | 73c | 43.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 76c | 42.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 56c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9f…36e1backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?this page
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 15, 2026?No won
- Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.