TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6ea…b02abacked No0c50,200$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9610513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd512…79b3backed Yes43c7,594$3,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,305.214621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes44c5,293$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,955.0314039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes65c5,255$3,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.742454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No74c4,961$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.422733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No63c4,050$2,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,537.8621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes35c2,908$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.717347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes12c2,896$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.3456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes28c2,350$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.643215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d6…8a05backed Yes27c1,922$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.822050%10 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+143.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c1,802$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.4442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No69c1,350$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93716541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No1c1,012$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No25c999.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517356.2%41 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72fb…0d8abacked Yes22c994.86$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+144.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes29c985.1$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.819534.4%67 W · 128 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2bc…b274backed No4c966.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes30c964.8$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.066221%13 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7369…5f41backed No67c950$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes37c922.28$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.0445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes18c907.65$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.928433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No80c899.99$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.995749.1%28 W · 29 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No77c858.99$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.835527.3%15 W · 40 L-12.7wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No75c805.1$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes23c800$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6209532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No77c775.11$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.844934.7%17 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ee…da09backed Yes13c774.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.187636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes27c755.64$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.554156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…eac0backed Yes20c752.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.791060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+60%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c699.68$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.9364339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes41c684.69$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.113268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes33c668.37$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.0611859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xba22…dc45backed Yes31c646.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.78825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes28c600.29$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.153941%16 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No72c599$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.857558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No79c593$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.472835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed No6c561.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92512%3 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes32c553.43$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.1126138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa597…c90dbacked Yes30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3504030%12 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.2813246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes10c500$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.2935631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a3…4af7backed No66c498.47$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.61850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63b3…cf7dbacked No63c473.99$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-77%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes29c467$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.7322227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes35c457.14$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.1447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1c9…748cbacked No70c430.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…563bbacked No72c414.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes75c400.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.795131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes6c400$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.6538247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked Yes21c379$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked No27c371.67$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No68c328.96$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6411851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b7…5cafbacked Yes69c324.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.756100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+105.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes28c321.11$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.25525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed No79c318.16$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.912748.1%13 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+138.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes24c315.86$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6315951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes29c314.19$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.636342.9%27 W · 36 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes50c302.61$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.618132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes66c301.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.973348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed Yes67c300$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.21758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e32…3408backed Yes29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.572740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02af…a5adbacked Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+607.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed No55c290.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed Yes36c283.02$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.132853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes26c269$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.065044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e6…b525backed Yes24c266.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.331353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+45.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No67c251.21$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3126423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef19…f419backed Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c242.29$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.8558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes32c230.69$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.872676.9%20 W · 6 L+6.7wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+103.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c230$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4075…8fb8backed Yes15c227$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.95185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c219.82$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed Yes26c219$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.061560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3829…3633backed Yes14c217.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.073228.1%9 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+226.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes21c214$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365648.2%27 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+94.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes27c200$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1473060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd1…1798backed Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes11c199.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9916225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No77c197.4$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15248630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes33c191.1$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.0950130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No68c179.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.393447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes31c178.32$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a0c…a35abacked Yes70c171.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.644436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No79c164.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.971936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+104.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes14c163.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0213444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4988…e0e6backed Yes70c156.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.15242.3%22 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes28c155.04$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.184456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa5e…a92cbacked Yes29c152.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes29c150$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10744224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No76c145.64$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9718246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c140.09$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2620749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Yes37c140$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.26943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+40.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes19c139.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.981258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes75c135$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed No73c132.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.822025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes31c128.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75fa…38a0backed Yes64c126.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.755100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+161.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.