Middle East · resolved market
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705479cc3e7cf2907997c62b4245356c48b5133f7d82a47829a2354dd77a7c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,665,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,242,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,665,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 90,381$11,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,796.08 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 14c | 73,375$10,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,195.47 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a3…66a5backed Yes | 7c | 69,953$5,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,195.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -80%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 12c | 66,892$8,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,014.71 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 8c | 46,349$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.6 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 8c | 42,600$3,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,412.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 7c | 40,059$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.29 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 21c | 35,840$7,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,524.44 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…1ababacked Yes | 14c | 35,024$4,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +54%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…2b23backed Yes | 12c | 34,199$4,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,145.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed Yes | 18c | 31,964$5,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,860.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a06dbacked Yes | 15c | 31,493$4,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,686.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa720…e62cbacked Yes | 12c | 30,134$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…70babacked Yes | 15c | 29,849$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 29,493$4,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe69b…a03abacked Yes | 8c | 29,199$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 14c | 27,663$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,762.16 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 12c | 27,425$3,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 9c | 22,591$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.5 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…8652backed Yes | 5c | 21,492$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…a2aebacked Yes | 17c | 20,965$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,509.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 13c | 20,769$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.45 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed Yes | 15c | 20,214$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.91 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 5c | 19,800$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.37 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…b31fbacked Yes | 15c | 19,527$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 11c | 19,224$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…f62cbacked Yes | 27c | 18,739$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes | 21c | 17,413$3,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,706.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5923…a3f7backed Yes | 14c | 17,000$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 16,800$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.25 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed Yes | 16c | 16,537$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 16,345$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.71 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 13c | 16,122$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.57 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes | 8c | 15,707$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…8370backed Yes | 15c | 15,420$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…cba6backed Yes | 1c | 14,365$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 14c | 14,000$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 13c | 13,782$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…fb52backed Yes | 9c | 13,722$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes | 10c | 13,487$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.49 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…b6afbacked Yes | 5c | 13,429$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…769cbacked Yes | 8c | 13,052$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7731…7b0fbacked Yes | 15c | 12,912$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 13c | 12,818$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,757$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…9c2bbacked Yes | 17c | 12,322$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 12,070$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.51 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…82eebacked Yes | 16c | 11,933$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 6c | 11,828$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.97 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 1c | 11,537$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…b771backed Yes | 6c | 11,484$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…3507backed Yes | 11c | 11,406$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 11,255$1,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.39 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 10c | 11,130$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 10,987$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.09 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,977$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…8be7backed Yes | 9c | 10,788$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 10,476$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.89 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a8…03a2backed Yes | 12c | 10,472$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…ac1bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…4f1bbacked Yes | 4c | 10,316$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…0879backed Yes | 8c | 10,291$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…9eebbacked Yes | 7c | 10,289$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +421%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…8b58backed Yes | 1c | 10,036$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…2b46backed Yes | 13c | 10,004$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…cd59backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 10c | 9,836$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.96 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817c…a994backed Yes | 19c | 9,741$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…d13dbacked Yes | 36c | 9,663$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 5c | 9,650$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 21c | 9,567$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…9e91backed Yes | 16c | 9,249$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 10c | 9,196$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.51 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 14c | 9,134$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.31 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaf…7ff9backed Yes | 9c | 8,800$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 5c | 8,632$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.5 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 13c | 8,419$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.34 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 14c | 8,350$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 9c | 8,347$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.8 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 8c | 8,315$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…71b3backed Yes | 12c | 8,311$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65f…420ebacked Yes | 14c | 8,232$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 12c | 8,131$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.49 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…3690backed Yes | 19c | 7,992$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 16c | 7,852$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 14c | 7,689$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad8…5b77backed Yes | 14c | 7,606$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.51 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,534$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.57 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 11c | 7,146$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 15c | 7,100$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.71 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…877dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,792$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 28cpaid | +169%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 14c | 6,781$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e53…1312backed Yes | 11c | 6,728$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…65e4backed Yes | 12c | 6,677$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 8c | 6,600$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 16c | 6,565$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.34 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2193…41ebbacked Yes | 10c | 6,494$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.