TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,665,699
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,242,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,665,699 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,640 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes13c90,381$11,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,796.08230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes14c73,375$10,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,195.4721521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81a3…66a5backed Yes7c69,953$5,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,195.031010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-80%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes12c66,892$8,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,014.7114325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes8c46,349$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.612634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes8c42,600$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes7c40,059$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.2919531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes21c35,840$7,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,524.442015%3 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde05…1ababacked Yes14c35,024$4,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,969.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+54%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1332…2b23backed Yes12c34,199$4,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,145.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d5…fba3backed Yes18c31,964$5,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,860.951361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39d…a06dbacked Yes15c31,493$4,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,686.4150%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa720…e62cbacked Yes12c30,134$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8839…70babacked Yes15c29,849$4,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,33610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c29,493$4,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,398.489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe69b…a03abacked Yes8c29,199$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes14c27,663$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,762.1617737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes12c27,425$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.453625%9 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes9c22,591$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.52213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…8652backed Yes5c21,492$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2a…a2aebacked Yes17c20,965$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes13c20,769$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.458125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1900…d545backed Yes15c20,214$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes12c20,000$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.91626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes5c19,800$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.37185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b28…b31fbacked Yes15c19,527$2,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes11c19,224$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.072236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+191.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4b6…f62cbacked Yes27c18,739$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes21c17,413$3,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,706.552339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed Yes14c17,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.861338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes13c16,800$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.2550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed Yes16c16,537$2,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,573.44425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-54.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes11c16,345$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.7121831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes13c16,122$2,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.577610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes8c15,707$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.81526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3992…8370backed Yes15c15,420$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1357…cba6backed Yes1c14,365$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes14c14,000$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0305123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes13c13,782$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…fb52backed Yes9c13,722$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.14933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked Yes10c13,487$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.497116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3634…b6afbacked Yes5c13,429$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44d…769cbacked Yes8c13,052$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7731…7b0fbacked Yes15c12,912$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes13c12,818$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7003033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c12,757$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.048817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c59…9c2bbacked Yes17c12,322$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes11c12,070$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.5148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e61…82eebacked Yes16c11,933$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes6c11,828$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.975516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes1c11,537$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.425626.8%15 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x108e…b771backed Yes6c11,484$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.411020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5a…3507backed Yes11c11,406$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes13c11,255$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.3944224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x162f…9309backed Yes10c11,130$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1004027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c10,987$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.093717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes11c10,977$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ea…8be7backed Yes9c10,788$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.54425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c10,476$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.897135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a8…03a2backed Yes12c10,472$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb054…ac1bbacked Yes0c10,400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac61…4f1bbacked Yes4c10,316$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.39100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09aa…0879backed Yes8c10,291$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.87944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc9a…9eebbacked Yes7c10,289$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+421%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8768…8b58backed Yes1c10,036$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf67…2b46backed Yes13c10,004$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes5c10,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4601838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ca…cd59backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3f…36b6backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+86.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0da3…e708backed Yes10c9,836$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.962015%3 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-65.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x817c…a994backed Yes19c9,741$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb71…d13dbacked Yes36c9,663$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833a…adecbacked Yes5c9,650$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425f…5493backed Yes21c9,567$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89e…9e91backed Yes16c9,249$1,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes10c9,196$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.517520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4c…6110backed Yes14c9,134$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,263.31254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-69.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aaf…7ff9backed Yes9c8,800$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes5c8,632$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.57014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes13c8,419$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.3419119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes14c8,350$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+385.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes9c8,347$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.85733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes8c8,315$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.551136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+56.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c3…71b3backed Yes12c8,311$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9951526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+176.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65f…420ebacked Yes14c8,232$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes12c8,131$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.493751.4%19 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5cf…3690backed Yes19c7,992$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b6…0be9backed Yes16c7,852$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2835…2b42backed Yes14c7,689$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad8…5b77backed Yes14c7,606$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.51160%0 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked Yes10c7,534$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.57392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes11c7,146$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes15c7,100$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.719532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba4…877dbacked Yes18c6,792$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick28cpaid+169%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked Yes14c6,781$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.072161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e53…1312backed Yes11c6,728$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3e…65e4backed Yes12c6,677$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.82922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes8c6,600$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes16c6,565$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.3420617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2193…41ebbacked Yes10c6,494$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.35825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-49.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.