Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4e388d7e1832fd1e91c42bd61623c84827dfd36224c18baa9cb4eff84dcc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 1,861$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.05 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…171cbacked No | 29c | 1,497$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 14c | 1,347$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 78c | 1,155$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,104$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 7c | 858.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 59c | 778.45$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 773.02$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.5 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 22c | 758$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 51c | 731.55$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.55 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 78c | 684.4$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 22c | 558$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 471.39$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 34c | 406.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 62c | 341.57$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 15c | 328.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 50c | 316.46$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 315.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 77c | 294.74$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.91 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 78c | 207$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 42c | 199.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 76c | 199.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 26c | 193.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 190$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c8…46cbbacked Yes | 40c | 177.74$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 34c | 162.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 162.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 25c | 135.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed Yes | 23c | 123.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked No | 20c | 116.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 54c | 99.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes | 66c | 83.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 22c | 82.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 26c | 82.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…0800backed Yes | 33c | 74.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 26c | 61.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 72c | 58.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…ba94backed Yes | 33c | 56.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe042…b3ccbacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed Yes | 65c | 54.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 65c | 52.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed No | 29c | 46.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 46.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x153f…b658backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 66c | 40.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 33c | 38.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 30c | 37.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 48c | 36.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 38c | 36.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 35.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 70c | 31.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed No | 55c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 67c | 24.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 65c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed Yes | 76c | 14.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?this page
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.