Movies · resolved market
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56708a184346552030af80e653c3e4634752d8fe2a65b6f8ee1b039b70dc8bf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,213$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 38c | 1,088$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 73c | 1,078$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 62c | 1,041$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 60c | 804.13$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.72 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 44c | 530.51$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.55 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 16c | 494.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.11 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 74c | 431$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 74c | 428$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 35c | 397$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed Yes | 65c | 397$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 74c | 372.43$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked No | 7c | 355.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 74c | 354$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 41c | 339.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.55 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 62c | 272$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Yes | 80c | 251.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 223.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.03 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 6c | 220.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed No | 38c | 194.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 190$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 71c | 174.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 35c | 170.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 22c | 139.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 37c | 134.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 129.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 75c | 75.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked No | 70c | 71.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 34c | 71.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 58c | 68.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 50c | 65.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 24c | 62.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e8…f3c5backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 22c | 56.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 22c | 55.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 67c | 48.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 44.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 40.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…b432backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 78c | 36.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 33.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 67c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 52c | 24.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?this page
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.