Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817aead26dca7ac04dff66fda557048e56b75d986af62e166fb87c70de6ff86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 62c | 3,713$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 1,679$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 1,325$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 26c | 986.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 58c | 854.25$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 54c | 767.78$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.89 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 613.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…8a32backed Yes | 47c | 578.42$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…59a8backed No | 3c | 509.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 31c | 499.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 9c | 485$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 29c | 422.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 11c | 421$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 401$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 48c | 395.28$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 51c | 377.22$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 11c | 366$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 56c | 341.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 54c | 329.1$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 79c | 300.18$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 284.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…e82fbacked Yes | 44c | 280.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 276.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 67c | 275.35$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…1292backed No | 9c | 274.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…bacebacked Yes | 38c | 270.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 259.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…db6abacked Yes | 42c | 240.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 49c | 231.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…ddc1backed No | 71c | 224.81$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 5c | 221.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 24c | 214.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caa…953fbacked No | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 30c | 186.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 43c | 175.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…78bebacked No | 19c | 158.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…65e1backed Yes | 67c | 149.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 44c | 134.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed No | 8c | 126.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Yes | 68c | 113.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…229abacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…c0a8backed Yes | 76c | 99.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…a038backed Yes | 51c | 98.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 67c | 90.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ef…2d21backed No | 58c | 86.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 72c | 73.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 67c | 68.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 36c | 68.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 63.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 61.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…d913backed Yes | 54c | 51.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…f97abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…7977backed No | 33c | 48.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…c72abacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 80c | 44.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 60c | 42.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…e140backed No | 66c | 35.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x159d…c3ccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 47c | 31.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 59c | 30.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 65c | 27.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0695…4accbacked No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 55c | 25.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 20.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a2…a2e1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.