Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d1b8f3078730b14213f48ec74b5153352d776dcee84bffe9a7c3a4910cdef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 46c | 2,153$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed No | 24c | 1,443$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 46c | 1,120$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 46c | 1,069$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 76c | 880$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 24c | 861$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 76c | 832$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 54c | 747$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 54c | 743$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 54c | 737$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 54c | 709$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 54c | 709$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 54c | 697$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 62c | 632$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +203%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 38c | 632$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +344.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 45c | 603$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 45c | 597$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 76c | 592$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 42c | 486.17$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 80c | 309.49$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 22c | 275.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 27c | 206.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 65c | 190.8$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 153.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 142.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…2753backed Yes | 78c | 101.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…380dbacked Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 27c | 54.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 57c | 45.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…fab2backed Yes | 72c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.