Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb99c85c6197fa471269fa0a1a90744a0019bebb5919e6ac1255208eef804348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 62c | 3,184$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbec…7869backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c02…e572backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 985.34$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.26 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 758.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 24c | 674.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 621.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 19c | 561$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 19c | 557$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 19c | 553$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 2c | 549.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 14c | 510.09$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 491.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 51c | 432.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…59a8backed No | 3c | 394.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 344.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 17c | 341.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…aacbbacked Yes | 68c | 225.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 209.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 51c | 206.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 31c | 196.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 30c | 185.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…f43abacked No | 51c | 180$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb540…e4ebbacked No | 51c | 179$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006b…4b08backed No | 51c | 175$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 71c | 170.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 170.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…6ad0backed No | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f09…be24backed No | 51c | 169$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…ce19backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…c16abacked Yes | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…cfd8backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 51c | 97.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…ea13backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ef…2d21backed No | 63c | 73.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 61.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 28c | 57.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…6a3abacked No | 70c | 57.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 75c | 52.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 32c | 47.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 72c | 45.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 36c | 41.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 69c | 38.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 41c | 34.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4743backed No | 79c | 31.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 30.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +259.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…37aabacked No | 74c | 13.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.