Stocks · resolved market
Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7117d5085e3a6964b57411ac5e2ae8dc270b18c6a44fe587dac77db66740b0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 15c | 1,153$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 9c | 690.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 61c | 623.83$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.65 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 15c | 613$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 14c | 574$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 15c | 514$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 337.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 27c | 325.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 25c | 147.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed No | 52c | 138.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…ddc1backed No | 75c | 133.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…9422backed Yes | 80c | 125.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 19c | 80.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 25c | 57.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23d…e7e3backed No | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0863…0acabacked No | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 51c | 46.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 43c | 36.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Yes | 80c | 33.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 58c | 33.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…d65dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 78c | 28.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ef…2d21backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin outperform the S&P 500 in March 2026?this page
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in March 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.