TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0695…4acc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2564%16 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.93
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$19.92
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$43.52
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$10.73
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.64
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.1%+$44.9
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.74
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+229%+$103.05
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+81.8%+$40.95
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+110.5%+$63
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$53.43
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$24.5
Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$9.14
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+347.2%+$171.6
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+48%+$43.24
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+88.4%+$35.34
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+58.3%+$52.88
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2475%18 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+101%+$25.24
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$23.17
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+77.8%+$11.68
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$12.29
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$17.23
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$14.15
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+110%+$16.49
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+77.7%+$23.35
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?backed Ceasefire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$16.07
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+73%+$35.94
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$10.06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$14.37
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+98%+$29.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+90.2%+$90.24
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+56.9%+$34.13
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+74.5%+$44.73
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$8.57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.12
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+81.3%+$118.91
All 24 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$7.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+156%+$16.89
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$26.12
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.03
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.91
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.