Middle East · resolved market
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c3c46ea0d48ea0e3049ee04bdfe1e4e9071721ec9146d492cd16c657df9ab92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $375,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,579 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 439 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,977$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 78c | 12,147$9,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 9c | 11,051$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 6c | 8,301$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.87 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…2425backed Yes | 2c | 7,411$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 18c | 6,621$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 6,399$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 9c | 5,708$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…af55backed Yes | 1c | 4,736$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 76c | 4,634$3,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 27c | 4,625$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.48 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,280$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 10c | 4,220$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.8 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked Yes | 23c | 4,189$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,962$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 45c | 3,660$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.27 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a4…a553backed Yes | 1c | 3,601$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…9791backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…d5fdbacked Yes | 46c | 3,510$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 3,472$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.53 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 3,379$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.36 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…07bcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,917$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,787$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,750$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 2,740$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.48 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,738$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.85 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 19c | 2,556$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.37 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 11c | 2,544$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.21 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc844…f8b9backed Yes | 15c | 2,532$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 33c | 2,341$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.52 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed Yes | 22c | 2,230$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…04ffbacked Yes | 5c | 2,203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 45c | 2,203$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.17 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…62b2backed Yes | 12c | 2,187$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 5c | 2,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 48c | 2,095$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.44 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,054$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.54 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…6e0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,910$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 3c | 1,893$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 10c | 1,849$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…f68ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,842$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…344dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,808$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 49c | 1,808$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 1,789$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 18c | 1,753$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed6d…8992backed Yes | 12c | 1,683$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…aa56backed Yes | 3c | 1,665$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 13c | 1,554$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 44c | 1,529$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.2 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 74c | 1,400$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed Yes | 11c | 1,391$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,373$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.34 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,369$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.29 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked No | 79c | 1,345$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 33c | 1,320$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 27c | 1,301$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 37c | 1,300$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.28 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,225$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 59c | 1,200$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…2e65backed Yes | 8c | 1,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,175$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…9084backed Yes | 1c | 1,152$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,142$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 1,116$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.17 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…86e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 48c | 1,077$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.86 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5b…7796backed Yes | 56c | 1,066$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 53c | 1,025$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.75 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…cddbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,024$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…e276backed No | 79c | 1,019$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes | 72c | 1,015$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes | 57c | 1,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dc…74f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…e288backed Yes | 2c | 948.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…8bb6backed No | 67c | 948.57$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 45c | 943.47$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 17c | 869.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 23c | 855.61$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.27 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef8…fd6bbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…e9bdbacked No | 61c | 828.76$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed Yes | 5c | 824.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…2bbbbacked Yes | 49c | 816.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 797.93$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 37c | 791.57$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.77 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 774.29$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f81…707ebacked Yes | 47c | 752.01$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.9 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…7f8ebacked Yes | 25c | 745.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 56c | 726.96$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.56 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 724.87$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.93 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4a…b0fdbacked No | 37c | 720.63$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 14c | 720.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7d…f2e9backed Yes | 10c | 715.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…b2dbbacked No | 31c | 711.4$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?this page
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.