Middle East · resolved market
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b4152aeff9efc4cb5b1b7b73150ab54835719f2768fd4d7a34b92951b84904f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,171 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 0c | 12,538$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f2…6478backed Yes | 1c | 9,337$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…3aeabacked Yes | 0c | 4,194$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 3,824$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,197$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 0c | 2,725$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 7c | 2,638$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b9…aa4fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 5c | 2,004$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,852$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…63f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,091$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,005$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 11c | 999.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a0…c047backed Yes | 12c | 989.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 79c | 737.13$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…0625backed Yes | 7c | 578.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…c744backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 416.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 71c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 75c | 396.11$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 27c | 362.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 12c | 335.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 15c | 325.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 15c | 325$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…041cbacked Yes | 6c | 315.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…e92bbacked Yes | 29c | 309.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…8323backed Yes | 42c | 257.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 12c | 255.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 7c | 220.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…a925backed Yes | 23c | 215.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…4d21backed Yes | 25c | 201.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 74c | 199.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…7302backed Yes | 18c | 180.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 11c | 180.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 16c | 176.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 17c | 176.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…9740backed Yes | 13c | 168.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed No | 70c | 145.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…86e4backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…6604backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736c…6540backed Yes | 14c | 124.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 110.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…42c3backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…3b6cbacked Yes | 21c | 97.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…3691backed Yes | 23c | 94.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed No | 67c | 90.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 76c | 76.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…1aadbacked Yes | 22c | 71.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9478backed Yes | 34c | 58.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fd…0d56backed Yes | 22c | 55.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…580dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0f…f955backed No | 78c | 46.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…b360backed Yes | 26c | 42.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15?this page
- Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.