Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43c7e8f73e867ebc035edf002617f67cf96b90c85eccac18090e553bfe7a8411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,839,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,839,979 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 923 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1736…688cbacked No | 0c | 171,082$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked No | 1c | 132,499$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7b…c28cbacked No | 0c | 121,730$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…d4b1backed No | 0c | 118,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…0341backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…23a4backed No | 0c | 85,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 0c | 70,673$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 79c | 64,873$51,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,803.49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…d7d4backed No | 0c | 62,088$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked No | 0c | 60,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1f30backed No | 0c | 59,717$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f35fbacked No | 3c | 58,943$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 58,680$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.32 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d8…ad50backed No | 0c | 55,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…b0f5backed No | 0c | 54,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 59c | 51,164$30,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,197.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…329ebacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…2a93backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9477…80efbacked No | 0c | 41,667$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f44…7b15backed No | 0c | 41,180$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 6c | 35,436$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.62 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 33,706$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.92 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…18a9backed No | 0c | 33,293$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…d56abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…28e4backed No | 2c | 29,379$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 2c | 24,274$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.61 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…36bcbacked No | 0c | 23,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 41c | 22,990$9,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,451.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…7bc7backed No | 0c | 22,498$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 18c | 21,092$3,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,863.11 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…a9a7backed No | 0c | 20,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…38cfbacked No | 0c | 19,998$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…b6d4backed No | 0c | 19,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bd…8a05backed No | 0c | 19,333$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…1dccbacked Yes | 45c | 18,279$8,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,003.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…0069backed No | 0c | 16,540$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…a9debacked No | 0c | 15,883$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…1236backed No | 0c | 15,880$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 15,703$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.52 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 15,286$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 41c | 15,060$6,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,236.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…0a79backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…1bc8backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…1e14backed No | 1c | 14,971$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 65c | 14,590$9,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…737cbacked No | 0c | 14,160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 13,629$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 65c | 13,124$8,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,569.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 13,095$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.44 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…5cf2backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 36c | 12,751$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,556.21 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…4880backed No | 0c | 12,667$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…f381backed No | 0c | 12,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…f1f5backed No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…0a8dbacked No | 45c | 12,451$5,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,597.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 25c | 11,903$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 3c | 11,048$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 11,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…f6b4backed No | 0c | 10,910$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 77c | 10,672$8,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…648ebacked No | 0c | 10,606$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…eddabacked No | 2c | 10,480$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 30c | 10,474$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 34c | 10,276$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,524.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 10,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…ea5abacked No | 0c | 10,161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed No | 2c | 10,142$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 39c | 10,000$3,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,903.53 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…f625backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ba89backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…1002backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…7a23backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…5ce8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7009…8606backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…cae3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…92eebacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 73c | 9,929$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 9,705$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.74 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 29c | 9,583$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…6104backed No | 15c | 9,537$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 67c | 9,518$6,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed No | 0c | 9,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 72c | 8,908$6,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…7299backed No | 2c | 8,635$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 8,536$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.83 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3a…61ebbacked No | 0c | 8,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 33c | 8,425$2,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.69 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 0c | 8,340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba61…4d0ebacked No | 4c | 8,270$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 18c | 7,603$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.61 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 29c | 7,480$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…21edbacked No | 0c | 7,333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…69c5backed No | 1c | 7,143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…be64backed Yes | 54c | 7,085$3,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,269.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc858…7797backed No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…6bd3backed No | 0c | 6,373$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?this page
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?Yes won
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.