Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bbabd359667d5bbdb9ee690bb959c9aa4cf4b08b2ae6592118a59753f622d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,478,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,508,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,478,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,011 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145a…5e86backed No | 4c | 222,508$8,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,135.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…6c27backed No | 1c | 193,984$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed No | 0c | 150,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…d7d4backed No | 1c | 148,287$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbd…80c1backed No | 0c | 117,365$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87d…0341backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a9…2a93backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9477…80efbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…5142backed No | 0c | 90,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked No | 0c | 81,540$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…c9e6backed No | 0c | 58,987$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f2debacked No | 0c | 53,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 49,576$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.98 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 46,989$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.83 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 7c | 46,172$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.25 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 30c | 44,281$13,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,492.96 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 25c | 43,628$10,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,948.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…1077backed No | 4c | 41,539$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.02 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…7df0backed No | 0c | 41,061$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 1c | 34,490$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 0c | 34,427$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…a386backed No | 0c | 33,667$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f35fbacked No | 2c | 32,998$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 20c | 29,692$6,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,003.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…c8ccbacked No | 3c | 28,974$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked No | 31c | 28,554$8,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,912.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…688cbacked No | 1c | 28,104$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…ca2ebacked No | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed No | 56c | 25,421$14,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,250 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…0a8dbacked No | 42c | 24,708$10,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,475.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…f381backed No | 0c | 23,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d8…ad50backed No | 0c | 23,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed No | 1c | 22,134$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 61c | 21,874$13,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,526.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 48c | 21,602$10,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,411.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d2…c91ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…1d07backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…a9a7backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…38cfbacked No | 0c | 19,998$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 20c | 19,972$4,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,023.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked No | 4c | 19,185$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.59 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653d…7805backed No | 3c | 19,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…a9debacked No | 0c | 19,173$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…3a6bbacked No | 0c | 18,627$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…36bcbacked No | 0c | 18,417$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 25c | 18,362$4,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.34 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb87b…3d0cbacked No | 0c | 17,730$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…1dccbacked Yes | 47c | 16,901$8,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,873.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ad…c12ebacked No | 2c | 16,472$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…b4b5backed No | 1c | 16,363$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04c…9e3fbacked No | 3c | 15,741$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 2c | 15,623$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 2c | 15,589$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.97 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 55c | 14,700$8,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,623.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…6c11backed No | 0c | 14,220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…eb7dbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…2ef2backed No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 79c | 13,416$10,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,828.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…2c4ebacked No | 3c | 13,191$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…87e2backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed No | 18c | 12,886$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,281.37 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…b22bbacked No | 6c | 12,829$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked No | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…f1f5backed No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 12,266$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…5cf2backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…6104backed No | 2c | 11,785$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…1057backed No | 0c | 11,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 71c | 10,955$7,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,832.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…7ef1backed No | 0c | 10,909$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba61…4d0ebacked No | 3c | 10,715$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 0c | 10,645$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked No | 0c | 10,622$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 56c | 10,392$5,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,819.73 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…f6b4backed No | 0c | 10,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ff…24a5backed No | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1d…66d8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…3701backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd196…d57dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…605bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…b0f5backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ba89backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…1002backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…77fbbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…7a23backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…5ce8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…71cfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d0…24b6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 29c | 9,955$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400c…dab2backed No | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…f9f7backed No | 14c | 9,440$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…56c1backed No | 0c | 9,380$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 32c | 9,225$2,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,302.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 73c | 9,171$6,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 50c | 8,631$4,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,340.97 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed No | 0c | 8,340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 8,282$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.22 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed No | 0c | 8,033$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked No | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?this page
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes won
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.