Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546a20225293544b154248b32d88dc0059097b9d9854772f1a24235b3f22dd59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 445 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 40c | 11,984$4,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,782.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 7,328$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 27c | 7,270$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.79 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 71c | 5,479$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.13 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 69c | 5,357$3,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.29 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 67c | 4,517$3,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.78 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 38c | 3,877$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.67 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 67c | 3,857$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.07 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 3,520$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…d705backed Yes | 41c | 3,236$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 28c | 3,224$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.15 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 63c | 2,339$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.13 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,289$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.44 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,228$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.85 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,216$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.07 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 34c | 2,197$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 38c | 2,163$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 45c | 2,043$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.34 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 58c | 1,925$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.74 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 27c | 1,847$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 27c | 1,783$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 24c | 1,769$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…c753backed Yes | 28c | 1,610$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed No | 63c | 1,578$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.71 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 72c | 1,569$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.05 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8cffbacked Yes | 42c | 1,547$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 67c | 1,509$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…8c2dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,505$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 44c | 1,467$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,423$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.78 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e45…644cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,381$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 67c | 1,354$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 1,339$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.27 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…3a25backed Yes | 51c | 1,286$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 62c | 1,265$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,243$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 32c | 1,205$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 76c | 1,185$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed Yes | 33c | 1,156$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 73c | 1,154$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,146$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked No | 59c | 1,080$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.39 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 19c | 1,044$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.33 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 74c | 1,040$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 1,040$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.55 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 70c | 999.98$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 989$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.49 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…8e5ebacked Yes | 24c | 983.49$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 66c | 973.2$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.33 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 77c | 906.57$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 41c | 903.66$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.32 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 24c | 902$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…866ebacked Yes | 43c | 900.3$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.38 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 42c | 822.34$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.04 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 62c | 813$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 22c | 806$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes | 50c | 801.63$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 50c | 799.98$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.79 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 78c | 783$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 78c | 783$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 776.78$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.01 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 776.66$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.63 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 39c | 768.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 66c | 761$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 22c | 760$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9908…3e8bbacked Yes | 36c | 756.2$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 32c | 750.1$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 56c | 710.44$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.82 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 54c | 709.71$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.8 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 37c | 683.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 66c | 679$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked No | 63c | 665$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…444bbacked Yes | 53c | 661.79$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 629.36$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.31 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…85b5backed Yes | 48c | 623.18$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 73c | 620$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed No | 80c | 609.53$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 608$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…68debacked No | 52c | 598.55$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 61c | 587.78$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.86 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 73c | 583$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…b913backed No | 68c | 580.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 73c | 580$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 24c | 578$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 68c | 574$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 33c | 561$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 67c | 544.76$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 64c | 544$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 36c | 544$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 535.03$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed No | 68c | 529.74$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 48c | 526.07$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 66c | 514.67$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 34c | 510$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 59c | 499.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.29 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 36c | 499.96$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 70c | 499.78$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.86 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…ceb5backed Yes | 52c | 492.04$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 491.62$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.