TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf275…01cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT456.7%3 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.76
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.55
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.49
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.73
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$115
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT4216.7%7 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+157%+$323.4
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,018Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,018
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.43
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Iran strike eight countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22.66
Will Iran strike seven countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Iran strike six countries in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+278.6%+$1,030.73
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+400%+$200
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$226.67
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+471.9%+$471.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$436
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,227Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,227.17
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $120 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.