TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes6c5,854$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c4,267$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.673588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes69c3,270$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.3723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes18c3,248$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.1735631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,929$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,852$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c2,673$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.582282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes24c2,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No80c2,204$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.1637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes3c2,178$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.176813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes2c1,600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.498538.8%33 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes3c1,514$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6623525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes8c1,504$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.11387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51b7…72d5backed No48c1,500$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.991080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+119.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes49c1,363$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.4350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes5c1,325$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes45c1,264$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57215230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes9c1,151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-79.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8233…b1efbacked No18c1,133$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick13cpaid+85.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c929.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.414928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed No17c800$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+68.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c786.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.854625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e7…f51ebacked Yes1c775.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e7…a322backed Yes2c728.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184515.6%7 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No16c709.8$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.581926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes25c671.27$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8918833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d17…c3dabacked No14c659.59$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.59258%2 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e8…878abacked Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+110.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes2c616.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a8…7d0cbacked Yes42c601.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcc…a2fabacked Yes77c537.51$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.52055%11 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes21c517.28$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.635431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4292…a0c7backed Yes6c511.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No5c499.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.7431344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe09d…1e72backed No45c446.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes6c423.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1114036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes26c412.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0490…2a0dbacked No44c402.78$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.463119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9676…4067backed Yes53c400$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.61872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick63cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes6c399.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes15c393.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-93.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c361.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.844136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes63c359.53$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.77321.9%16 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes52c346.79$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.6328438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes29c332.73$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2135652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes5c299.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…b569backed No79c299.99$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.24151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes5c299.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4520438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes7c298.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.824129.3%12 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fff…ee5fbacked Yes7c292.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes79c275.13$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.148630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No35c273.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.8630649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0xa620…fc1ebacked No14c272.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+233%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d2…0bc0backed No6c257.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.246136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No70c255.82$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1710742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes21c255$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5526423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x790f…2b81backed No12c250.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.932536%9 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed Yes10c248.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c228.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.162476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54b…aa14backed Yes50c200.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002378.3%18 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No47c197$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.589930.3%30 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7c…016abacked Yes26c189.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.01560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick19cpaid+214.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf412…fdecbacked No72c186.06$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.062045%9 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8490…17b5backed No6c180.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+227.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9083…99fabacked No75c174.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes54c165.1$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1628126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes64c163$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2610246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb2…c4a2backed No12c149.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+316.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…3727backed Yes16c147.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.852512%3 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b84…ef8bbacked No14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+257.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9851…1f8bbacked No15c135.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf275…01cbbacked Yes36c124.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454216.7%7 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes40c113$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.26549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…6c5cbacked Yes21c109.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb5…4999backed No14c106.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.382416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes68c105.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.789942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…0a90backed Yes11c104.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32f0…7f90backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick19cpaid+79.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed No70c99.6$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.62564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1daa…bc4bbacked Yes15c98.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed9…7405backed Yes28c97.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.346041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…aac7backed Yes21c93.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205236.5%19 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No49c84.03$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9610341.7%43 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd52a…3691backed No14c80$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa32a…36d4backed Yes69c72.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501877.8%14 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+76.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x707a…e8a3backed Yes73c70.1$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes21c68.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7231728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8aa7…6132backed Yes40c63.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.016835.3%24 W · 44 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b39…4caabacked No44c56.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1647…4c4ebacked No46c54.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dba…462ebacked No56c50.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.985038%19 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe898…7116backed No51c49.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe397…60b6backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e45…a038backed No78c38.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No73c34.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.468482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611255.4%62 W · 50 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52ce…1da9backed No70c28.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f1…af59backed No79c25.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b8…001cbacked Yes64c17.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid+9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.