Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e106508f1711280eb937251f4e1be9c12294c1208e0261bd0c945507a1dc0cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 4c | 18,962$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.02 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,575$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,564$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,280$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.55 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 6c | 4,230$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 21c | 2,358$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.57 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,091$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 6c | 1,999$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 75c | 1,555$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.75 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 27c | 1,487$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.06 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 1,481$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 68c | 1,466$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 48c | 1,414$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 9c | 1,280$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 1,204$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.31 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 13c | 1,173$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.32 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 26c | 1,125$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 1,115$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 8c | 1,062$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,052$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 63c | 1,019$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.93 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 45c | 931.37$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.96 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 17c | 787$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 782.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 79c | 750.24$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 22c | 749.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 17c | 676$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 11c | 673.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 7c | 618.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 14c | 615$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 602.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…9830backed No | 59c | 599.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 13c | 577$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 18c | 570.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 549.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 17c | 542$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 8c | 533.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…45d9backed Yes | 49c | 511.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +203%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 462.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 72c | 417.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 22c | 415.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 6c | 409.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 50c | 402.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 13c | 381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 17c | 354$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 13c | 347$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked Yes | 8c | 343.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 322.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 13c | 315$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 34c | 302.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 13c | 301$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 23c | 298.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 285.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 70c | 276.63$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 7c | 274$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 24c | 271.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467d…49a3backed Yes | 18c | 271.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 38c | 266.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 38c | 264.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe09d…1e72backed Yes | 38c | 262.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…f9d1backed Yes | 40c | 251.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…ca64backed Yes | 7c | 231.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 9c | 225.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 79c | 214$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.7 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…b858backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed No | 69c | 195.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…2d3cbacked Yes | 46c | 191.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…440ebacked No | 65c | 189.05$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 42c | 173.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 39c | 166.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 163.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…886dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 151.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…385bbacked No | 73c | 148.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 135.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 131.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…888ebacked No | 78c | 128.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 24c | 122.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 112.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a54…89a5backed No | 72c | 97.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 13c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea66…bcaabacked Yes | 61c | 81.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa08c…dc50backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 63c | 66.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…f543backed No | 76c | 65.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.