Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcbe59b228605e5a7c53123ff56e8facc0b6021a186738e3cc536ebc70875ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,031,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,380,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,031,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 537 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked No | 1c | 602,649$4,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320.86 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 492,251$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.5 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 1c | 300,555$4,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,161.83 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…8fafbacked No | 0c | 207,251$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceff…dae4backed No | 0c | 174,016$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 0c | 161,873$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.46 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…e245backed No | 0c | 125,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…e30ebacked No | 0c | 123,779$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…bc3abacked No | 0c | 62,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…029ebacked No | 0c | 60,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…7710backed No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…3fbebacked No | 0c | 42,574$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 8c | 42,541$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.13 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…48b5backed No | 0c | 42,170$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…690cbacked No | 0c | 38,310$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed No | 5c | 38,294$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,927.23 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…a221backed No | 2c | 36,473$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef1…7127backed No | 0c | 34,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked No | 9c | 32,961$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.79 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…ffb0backed No | 0c | 32,361$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 0c | 31,722$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 15c | 26,755$3,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.69 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 1c | 26,555$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed No | 14c | 25,616$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.94 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61a…3523backed No | 0c | 24,929$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed No | 4c | 24,331$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.81 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…a2ffbacked No | 0c | 24,255$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…e4e6backed No | 4c | 23,797$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.94 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked No | 0c | 23,319$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 2c | 21,018$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.99 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4073…39f8backed No | 1c | 20,899$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked No | 0c | 20,643$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…e559backed No | 24c | 19,998$4,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,850.05 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…9269backed No | 0c | 19,845$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed No | 18c | 19,194$3,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,363.18 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…6bd4backed No | 13c | 18,477$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 77c | 17,400$13,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.81 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…5863backed No | 13c | 17,193$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 13c | 16,000$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.33 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fa…1d82backed No | 1c | 15,969$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed No | 2c | 15,205$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.9 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…9410backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c62…cb81backed No | 1c | 14,857$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…e6bebacked No | 1c | 14,815$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…d093backed No | 0c | 14,660$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…2b9dbacked No | 0c | 14,342$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 71c | 14,290$10,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.17 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecd…15fdbacked No | 0c | 14,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13da…3a09backed No | 0c | 14,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 0c | 13,811$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…1463backed No | 2c | 13,213$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.19 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 29c | 12,814$3,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,679.54 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 12,440$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…a375backed No | 24c | 12,437$2,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…aca8backed No | 1c | 12,050$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…f2b8backed No | 1c | 11,238$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…8ffebacked No | 1c | 11,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed No | 1c | 10,420$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…9bb4backed No | 0c | 10,202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 0c | 10,040$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…1407backed No | 0c | 9,825$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 12c | 9,719$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.29 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…0a24backed No | 0c | 9,410$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked No | 1c | 9,345$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…87cebacked No | 2c | 9,262$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 42c | 8,564$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,974.16 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…7d19backed No | 0c | 8,195$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 20c | 8,158$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.78 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…5a22backed No | 1c | 7,824$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…e75cbacked No | 4c | 7,476$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 0c | 7,473$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 1c | 7,324$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…2600backed No | 1c | 7,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 6c | 7,031$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.48 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…5addbacked No | 0c | 7,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 6,709$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.16 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…ce29backed No | 0c | 6,393$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked No | 8c | 6,206$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…beddbacked No | 3c | 6,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…9019backed No | 0c | 6,010$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cac…0803backed No | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…91a1backed No | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…2f28backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…e728backed No | 0c | 5,895$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…e309backed No | 0c | 5,809$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…8e18backed No | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…c3b8backed No | 1c | 5,474$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…4604backed No | 16c | 5,444$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…523cbacked No | 0c | 5,167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +276.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 5,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 1c | 4,596$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2c…2c22backed No | 1c | 4,594$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…38f6backed No | 1c | 4,558$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…385bbacked No | 9c | 4,512$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 13c | 4,495$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,919.04 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 35c | 4,486$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.45 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…ab14backed No | 0c | 4,093$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…8a41backed No | 4c | 4,089$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?this page
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.