Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb32009802200fda72809205b9a74783841c5c6ade2a92eeea6fb71150f95013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 50c | 13,072$6,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,572.94 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 12,019$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,295.88 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 10c | 11,201$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,036.14 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 17c | 9,763$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,096.29 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 8,620$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,817.1 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 13c | 7,486$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,526.14 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…8226backed Yes | 11c | 5,320$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 17c | 4,225$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e34…c876backed Yes | 20c | 3,979$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.98 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 10c | 3,197$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.3 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 9c | 3,148$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.38 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 3,101$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,756.44 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…e8babacked Yes | 17c | 3,031$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.87 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…ba4abacked No | 79c | 2,831$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 18c | 2,325$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.4 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,312$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,259$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.85 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 15c | 2,132$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 19c | 1,970$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…ee4dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,868$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.39 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 9c | 1,716$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.23 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 22c | 1,646$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.61 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 19c | 1,605$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.05 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 1,575$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.03 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 13c | 1,542$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.12 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 1,505$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.25 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 61c | 1,336$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.44 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 19c | 1,300$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 19c | 1,233$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 9c | 1,110$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.1 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 1,013$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.94 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 19c | 991$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 955.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…c744backed Yes | 12c | 933.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 15c | 920$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 18c | 910$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 15c | 883$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 52c | 844$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 14c | 796$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed No | 52c | 762$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 21c | 759.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 15c | 729.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.08 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd910…187abacked No | 11c | 719$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 22c | 714.89$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.76 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 14c | 714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 48c | 713$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 50c | 685$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 669.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.36 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 79c | 660.59$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 18c | 631.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.16 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 26c | 620$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.4 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 17c | 619$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 48c | 601$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 14c | 590$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 72c | 553.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 52c | 528$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 48c | 527$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 15c | 526$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.1 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 76c | 483$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 14c | 477.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.29 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 52c | 472$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 15c | 466$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 49c | 458$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 15c | 442$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 19c | 430$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 69c | 426.86$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.06 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -7.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 416.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.28 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked Yes | 14c | 389$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked Yes | 15c | 381.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.46 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 60c | 370$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 27c | 369.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 10c | 369.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 52c | 343$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 52c | 342$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…7e04backed Yes | 12c | 340$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.32per pick | 15cpaid | +186%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 11c | 339.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.82 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…4ec0backed No | 63c | 319.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea7c…1d7dbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +248.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 14c | 299.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.81 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 15c | 286$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 14c | 277$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…df38backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…ca64backed Yes | 16c | 259.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.55 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 252.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 243.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.92 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed Yes | 8c | 241.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +516.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 14c | 239$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…2134backed Yes | 13c | 234.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 18c | 222.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.61 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed Yes | 38c | 221.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes | 48c | 214$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 19c | 203.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel or the US target Tehran?this page
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Yes won
- Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.