Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596b23bcb24180c0525cb5c85c536601abb008132aac428215104ed1906ad58e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $876,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,156,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $876,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf93…7a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 182,028$5,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,930.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…f957backed Yes | 0c | 60,995$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…701cbacked Yes | 2c | 26,141$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 22,162$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.53 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked No | 67c | 17,236$11,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,614.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 10c | 12,757$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.7 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 39c | 10,403$4,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,085.77 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 1c | 9,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…b15cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,581$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae54…193fbacked Yes | 4c | 8,327$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 21c | 7,435$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 24c | 6,217$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.41 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…e4a8backed Yes | 2c | 6,055$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 27c | 5,076$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.1 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…77e1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +332.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…4cc4backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 5c | 3,603$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 63c | 3,141$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.24 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…14d4backed Yes | 2c | 2,978$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 21c | 2,499$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.15 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…955abacked Yes | 3c | 2,296$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 2,197$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.55 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 60c | 1,712$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 50c | 1,606$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.31 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 2c | 1,549$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…8fdfbacked No | 65c | 1,521$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 36c | 1,473$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.52 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x271c…af71backed Yes | 25c | 1,467$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 9c | 1,438$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 27c | 1,365$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.85 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked No | 62c | 1,258$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 77c | 1,253$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.02 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 29c | 1,242$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.91 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 17c | 1,223$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.37 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,179$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.79 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 66c | 1,172$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…981cbacked No | 62c | 1,134$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 59c | 1,075$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.41 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 73c | 916.32$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 62c | 886.53$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.67 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 57c | 882.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 881.46$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 831.13$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.09 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 7c | 829.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 4c | 798.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 38c | 796.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 4c | 723.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 35c | 710.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes | 10c | 704.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed Yes | 31c | 700.29$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.16 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 73c | 682.7$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 600.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1de…5834backed No | 80c | 571.69$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Yes | 37c | 567.89$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 71c | 550$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…d8d9backed No | 57c | 516.16$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 79c | 515.33$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 508.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 17c | 494.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 478.13$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…d0edbacked Yes | 6c | 461.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…2784backed Yes | 7c | 437.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 3c | 419.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 5c | 419.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 48c | 414.89$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.13 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 50c | 401.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 366.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…10c3backed Yes | 7c | 366.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 17c | 353.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 347.47$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 47c | 336$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +359.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 74c | 332.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 330.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Yes | 35c | 325.46$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 62c | 321.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…5deabacked No | 58c | 320$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 10c | 313.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 32c | 311.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed No | 64c | 297.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 7c | 291.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…44fabacked Yes | 6c | 275$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…f06ebacked No | 71c | 272.33$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…69e9backed No | 72c | 259.06$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 75c | 249.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 20c | 247$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 13c | 243.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1533…48b6backed No | 73c | 239.34$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa746…e8ffbacked Yes | 5c | 233.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 45c | 232.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.57 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 230.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…a195backed No | 74c | 229.56$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 46c | 215.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…e5e9backed Yes | 10c | 208.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 63c | 202.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.