TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$786,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$867,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes32c60,867$19,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,719.982123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf1…c76ebacked No58c41,855$24,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,593.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed No64c38,293$24,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,828.851376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe312…3b76backed Yes34c33,949$11,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,560.89520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-74.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a09…e317backed No38c29,518$11,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,404.552684.6%22 W · 4 L+9.8wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Yes64c28,369$18,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,238.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed No41c22,054$9,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,911.011861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+83.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf375…41bcbacked Yes48c21,493$10,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,323.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eed…975cbacked No63c17,476$10,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,540.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb50…be06backed No59c16,931$9,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,935.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7410…3b67backed Yes51c12,862$6,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,559.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c12,539$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.567663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa958…fecfbacked Yes7c11,193$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.12810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked No50c10,739$5,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,321.852475%18 W · 6 L+7.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+82.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x721a…5e37backed Yes59c10,554$6,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,226.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No62c10,239$6,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,872.275657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xbd68…8b82backed No66c9,415$6,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.41090%9 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick61cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fd1…b436backed Yes59c7,397$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…6b5cbacked No35c7,252$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+380.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a84…4612backed Yes17c6,778$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d9…df17backed Yes45c6,663$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes42c6,362$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,669.994531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes10c6,173$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.48147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked No78c5,907$4,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.752532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4df…dfc0backed Yes17c5,721$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f5…251bbacked Yes70c5,164$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes49c5,128$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,490.2515041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes2c5,123$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.871618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d103backed Yes8c5,017$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes40c4,797$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,910.2412528%35 W · 90 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf403…fd9dbacked No64c4,685$2,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc4c…8a45backed Yes65c4,617$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick62cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked Yes43c4,553$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.871637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb16a…81cbbacked Yes42c4,439$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked No38c4,305$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.532450%12 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No47c4,146$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.61887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfea…c9febacked Yes28c4,145$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b7…09cebacked Yes41c4,013$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e96…633fbacked Yes3c3,874$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick11cpaid+99.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes2c3,783$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b7…675dbacked Yes26c3,657$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes6c3,596$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.595238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…6435backed Yes17c3,356$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.7229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a1…3cb7backed Yes48c3,158$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb810…df70backed Yes36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…868bbacked No66c2,981$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+375.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4db7…d20ebacked No62c2,955$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.44161%25 W · 16 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc20b…e068backed No40c2,953$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0a5…3b5abacked Yes36c2,711$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7a…e986backed Yes10c2,698$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a8…389dbacked Yes5c2,602$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0431…6088backed Yes23c2,599$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bf…8763backed Yes32c2,568$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.435332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed No64c2,561$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.41450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d6…02d8backed No63c2,518$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…13bcbacked Yes5c2,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes32c2,499$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4110320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f68…1a2dbacked No40c2,495$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec04…8a64backed Yes13c2,408$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…c7b4backed Yes41c2,396$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.2280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a26…3645backed Yes42c2,300$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed No35c2,249$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.852524%6 W · 19 L-6.1wins-0.24per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8064…ad1bbacked Yes45c2,244$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d2…bb7dbacked Yes45c2,232$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f16…7a73backed No43c2,207$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.24887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.43per pick44cpaid+181.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbeb1…7dd5backed Yes7c2,191$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1adb…e046backed Yes47c2,140$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe219…d8afbacked Yes46c2,132$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.22714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-77.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d34…47c8backed Yes5c2,127$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.11631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7203…c36fbacked Yes15c2,100$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked Yes46c2,073$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9589222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23d…f322backed No27c2,067$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.822060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e74…b428backed Yes10c2,027$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a3…e71dbacked Yes45c2,025$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aca…e25dbacked Yes2c2,024$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked Yes45c2,015$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.858337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x078f…ae04backed Yes30c2,000$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9e…21c5backed No65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9404517.8%8 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9338…8addbacked Yes36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da9…3710backed No56c1,953$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.63560%21 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0310…d733backed Yes28c1,895$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes40c1,889$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.693327.3%9 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+62.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c83…0f55backed Yes60c1,862$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-61%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Yes37c1,850$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1357…95f3backed Yes4c1,734$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.51136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a9…c3cabacked Yes6c1,731$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3237…7535backed Yes2c1,684$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Yes73c1,650$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf275…01cbbacked Yes9c1,627$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes25c1,624$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.89156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…041abacked Yes29c1,541$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No39c1,500$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.982450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x392a…bfbabacked Yes46c1,498$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+59.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b9…f10cbacked Yes73c1,482$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.621631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9f…c1a4backed Yes3c1,464$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.852924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x162e…ecc1backed Yes14c1,445$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…5d2cbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3817backed No57c1,409$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.984852.1%25 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc0b…37aebacked Yes36c1,400$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.