Token Launches · resolved market
Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600f14781d027ac43ca7c86b71c10ac021a8bc151b13fc5cb8ac233aece7baac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $561,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 0c | 6,381$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,918$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,318$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06d…9bfebacked Yes | 4c | 1,080$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…c7b4backed Yes | 1c | 774.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 703.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 579.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…f4c1backed Yes | 4c | 508.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…7dd5backed Yes | 4c | 486.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b4…e0cfbacked Yes | 3c | 441.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 3c | 403.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…8b9ebacked Yes | 3c | 344.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Meteora FDV above $10B one day after launch?this page
- Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- Meteora FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?No won
- Meteora FDV above $8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.