TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$441,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$475,603

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf403…5b97backed Yes56c30,000$16,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,799.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea7…46e6backed Yes2c25,883$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…87a0backed Yes16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No22c18,213$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,203.562450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c7a…e986backed Yes73c16,675$12,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,231.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c13,676$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.417663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa958…fecfbacked Yes14c13,316$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.362810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No20c11,440$2,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,131.062360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes77c10,271$7,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,913.521118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-73.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02bf…e70dbacked Yes34c9,040$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked No71c8,875$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560.247545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d103backed Yes71c8,368$5,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,917.7930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes63c7,455$4,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,679.085238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ff…81eabacked No30c6,605$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,631.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed No43c6,435$2,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.972867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No24c5,884$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,479.953756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed No21c5,769$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,567.531833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes10c5,674$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.181618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb4f…ae3dbacked Yes0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No52c5,214$2,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.217234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c35…370abacked Yes16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd78…dcd8backed Yes55c5,000$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd68…8b82backed No52c4,890$2,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,346.911090%9 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick61cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1866…f0fbbacked No44c4,855$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,739.84580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dbf…c4f4backed No39c4,576$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,783.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb86…1dc5backed No68c4,500$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7959…fd6fbacked Yes19c4,465$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes10c3,963$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.2414732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No49c3,309$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.481656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddf2…19a3backed No24c3,288$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed No18c3,202$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,625633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked No60c3,072$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.765100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+215.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x13e8…b4c6backed Yes11c2,957$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe29…a8f5backed No24c2,536$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e96…633fbacked No48c2,424$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick11cpaid+99.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes72c2,338$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked No62c2,116$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.992450%12 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57de…cd90backed Yes6c2,065$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.92425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-65.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9510…0d7abacked Yes29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc033…859bbacked Yes10c1,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No32c1,955$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa48d…688fbacked No76c1,800$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes79c1,794$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.83540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb8…ac19backed No23c1,788$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.89837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+121.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes13c1,717$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4713422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2ae2…35dbbacked Yes37c1,582$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd318…637bbacked No74c1,429$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4da…3d69backed Yes50c1,425$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6c1…51aabacked No27c1,291$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.731241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+59.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e88…ea74backed No30c1,195$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed No23c1,184$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No41c1,157$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.4810336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe75f…2687backed Yes38c1,044$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No73c1,030$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.013141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d4…8694backed Yes17c1,028$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9143…ff04backed Yes69c1,014$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1c5…714ebacked Yes75c1,010$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fe…a403backed Yes58c1,005$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.591030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6252…495dbacked Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3401838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No22c999.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.995657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes59c999.99$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No16c999$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.164233.3%14 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+28.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1939…22e8backed Yes10c979.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0d…570abacked No41c900$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5312832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes64c799.47$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8a…15c1backed Yes44c790.8$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a5…ec07backed Yes16c758.52$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid+95.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c0…082cbacked Yes74c750$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x69fc…dfc3backed Yes15c680$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb953…f354backed No76c662.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed No24c660.51$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.711353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed Yes8c609.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked No25c609.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.375219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed No21c595.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3de9…ef1bbacked Yes17c584.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…67acbacked Yes77c522.35$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c2…5e1abacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed No13c499.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4351428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa92…0d27backed Yes10c486.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32a7…bf08backed No21c476.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef65…24dbbacked Yes64c468$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.521172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No30c465.01$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.011952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes72c449.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.993036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1892…b299backed No67c436.91$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4175…4ba6backed Yes58c430.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x026a…a836backed Yes24c412.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes18c399.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.23228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Yes75c396.4$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked Yes77c390.33$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.871776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…7eaabacked Yes71c389.97$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.081225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2e2…06fbbacked No37c378.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.878337.3%31 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf501…db17backed Yes14c376.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a3…5f75backed Yes64c357.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.092157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa60…d867backed No55c350.85$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…6841backed Yes31c349.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b41…841ebacked Yes65c349$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc971…ba03backed No33c348.53$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce2…f6c2backed No30c323.61$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.52055%11 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick31cpaid+83.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4db7…d20ebacked No12c318.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.414161%25 W · 16 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+102.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Yes20c305.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.