TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$434,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,117 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3377…6b54backed No1c33,049$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+425.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdfc9…7552backed No26c22,180$5,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,672.342360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c7a…e986backed Yes76c14,133$10,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c13,579$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.417663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No3c11,682$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.022450%12 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x81ff…81eabacked No8c11,641$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e96…633fbacked No3c9,554$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.12837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick11cpaid+99.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed Yes75c9,420$7,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,325.651618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea7…46e6backed No5c6,953$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b5…f72cbacked No7c6,825$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed No7c6,611$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.393545.7%16 W · 19 L+5.2wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+88.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No8c6,232$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1939…22e8backed No3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No22c4,846$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeabd…3a01backed No20c4,846$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.953522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No6c4,601$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.216217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc033…859bbacked No2c4,251$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…6f12backed Yes77c4,075$3,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.97560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe29…a8f5backed No4c4,048$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9510…0d7abacked No3c3,977$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfda7…4ea0backed No13c3,889$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked No5c3,544$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.921711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No2c3,506$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.666116.4%10 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a3…a06dbacked No4c3,269$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+158.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No4c3,113$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.27156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbf…c4f4backed No36c3,100$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked No14c2,869$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.795219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fb…69f1backed No6c2,865$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357f…1106backed Yes73c2,781$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes65c2,723$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.084959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes72c2,622$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.912867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a7c…a586backed No8c2,544$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No12c2,530$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8614732%47 W · 100 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c3a…068cbacked No7c2,490$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed Yes68c2,233$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.64887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe714…d510backed No5c2,203$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb34e…239fbacked No2c2,122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd68…8b82backed Yes69c2,044$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.71090%9 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick61cpaid+44.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed No25c1,907$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52bf…97a2backed No30c1,882$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c8d…ab53backed No5c1,817$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9416…7123backed No47c1,769$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.3156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick30cpaid-90.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed Yes78c1,764$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+45.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddf2…19a3backed No11c1,717$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No5c1,715$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.877234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c0…de12backed No6c1,696$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48d…688fbacked No37c1,694$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.03977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf0…5ac2backed No30c1,600$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda23…080ebacked No6c1,431$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc3…e92ebacked No3c1,430$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec2…1c4abacked No1c1,395$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+87.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d65…c8cebacked No3c1,357$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaead…6695backed No4c1,323$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e88…ea74backed No12c1,301$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.971353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7273…cfc3backed No7c1,298$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c90…aa32backed No4c1,236$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+98.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef0…8ea6backed No8c1,221$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x233c…f604backed No47c1,189$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4a…2204backed No33c1,114$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4850%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc75…e4bcbacked No4c1,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442450%12 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc51…74fbbacked No8c1,090$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4324…a086backed No2c1,036$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…bf08backed No6c1,009$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.12616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x15a3…2862backed No24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed No10c1,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.742227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed No3c1,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes70c999.99$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2992050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb6…8e4abacked No50c975$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed No3c971.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.588338.6%32 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef3…c555backed No7c945.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed No1c939.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.831811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2b7…031cbacked Yes52c938.99$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0d…570abacked No5c918.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.132832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes71c880.61$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.393228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb8…ac19backed No6c854.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick19cpaid+121.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9328…ec52backed Yes73c849.13$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.13837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c4…501bbacked No49c800$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba94…d855backed Yes65c800$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.22536%9 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9036…355dbacked No3c775.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9289…6747backed No8c754.26$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb671…c742backed No2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No30c676.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010336.9%38 W · 65 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb318…451bbacked No35c661.55$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4efd…9e75backed Yes67c649.64$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.62785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No13c619.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.334839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17d3…d2debacked No11c618.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d7…159cbacked No8c617.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed No33c607.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes69c594.17$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.34526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2982…9896backed No9c584.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5b…4885backed Yes75c581.06$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabec…f322backed No6c581.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5aa…87acbacked No6c580.85$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…15dabacked No34c566.73$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No6c557.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.942512%3 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a75…f947backed No4c549.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+70.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe554…8305backed No18c540$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a5…8805backed No13c521.02$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.84540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes73c510$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.87875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+100.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.