Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65b9c96305fad6785f3d5901abee738d688be17f59709b7d4c8c1f4487e5866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $263,093 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 0c | 13,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 12,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 9c | 4,590$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.42 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 7c | 4,112$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.49 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 3,390$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…5bd3backed No | 4c | 2,580$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 2c | 2,340$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 2c | 2,123$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 72c | 2,095$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,796$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,608$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 1,543$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.3 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…7200backed No | 2c | 1,442$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…c935backed No | 2c | 1,225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 1,138$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.69 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,104$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 1,045$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 10c | 999.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 981.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 944.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 11c | 896.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 884.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…f391backed Yes | 80c | 768.15$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 18c | 767.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 31c | 749$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 50c | 699.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 59c | 673.62$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.08 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 20c | 673.5$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 9c | 666.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 651.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 24c | 592.55$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.86 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 4c | 488.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…cd9abacked No | 76c | 466.78$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…091ebacked Yes | 68c | 460.45$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed Yes | 45c | 453.88$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 10c | 450$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…b3c5backed Yes | 35c | 428.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…17e2backed Yes | 45c | 391.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked No | 26c | 378.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 5c | 343.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…6f81backed Yes | 72c | 336.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 78c | 322$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 23c | 311.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked Yes | 58c | 308.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 303$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 16c | 284.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.21 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 16c | 284.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…75c5backed No | 13c | 260.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 256.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 74c | 246.71$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed Yes | 64c | 231.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 77c | 228.19$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 39c | 222$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.92 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 213.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 12c | 204.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d37…7311backed Yes | 63c | 200.28$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 192.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…bee0backed Yes | 78c | 174.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 21c | 169.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…fe24backed Yes | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b69…373ebacked No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 11c | 141.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…65d5backed No | 19c | 132.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +292.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 20c | 130.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8cffbacked No | 18c | 127.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 76c | 121.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a4…a49abacked No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 117.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 35c | 104.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…7856backed No | 27c | 102.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked No | 66c | 100.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -9.7wins | -0.44per pick | 62cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 79c | 100.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…2a1bbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…b953backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…cc01backed No | 23c | 86.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…b937backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 30c | 81.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…191bbacked Yes | 42c | 79.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…d049backed Yes | 78c | 76.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed No | 68c | 73.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 19c | 68.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 24c | 68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…362bbacked No | 22c | 67.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?this page
- Will Iran strike eight countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike five countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike four countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike no countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike one country in March?No won
- Will Iran strike seven countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike six countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike three countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike two countries in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.