Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike five countries in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98cb172e143b78cd8605ce02142bdf7f100833e373bb46a1221ea00d9d6f0fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 2c | 2,661$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,635$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…8c11backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…42aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…e91fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,007$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…ab28backed Yes | 2c | 644.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…0a03backed Yes | 12c | 406.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…1930backed Yes | 14c | 218.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…8d42backed Yes | 18c | 111.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 110.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 51c | 35.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike five countries in March?this page
- Will Iran strike eight countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike four countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?Yes won
- Will Iran strike no countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike one country in March?No won
- Will Iran strike seven countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike six countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike three countries in March?No won
- Will Iran strike two countries in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.