TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb23e…362b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: La Liga, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 62 out of 100; worst Music at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+377.8%+$56.67
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+233.6%+$35.04
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$12.67
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.02
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.86
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+34.7%+$8.85
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+25%+$3
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick36cpaid+175.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
La Liga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$89
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$17.3
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$23.79
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$115.3
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.52
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.07
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.7
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.15
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$27.5
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$40.33
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+106.7%+$42.17
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.27
Will Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+27.3%+$15.04
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+32%+$4.82
All 9 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-41.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Magic vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Bucks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+191.8%+$48.35
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.3
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$46.05
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$131.25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+159.4%+$28.92
Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$11.47
OGC Nice vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.55
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$6.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+33%+$28.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.