TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Bucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,432,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,432,458 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,590 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Bucks36c200,000$72,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,999.5248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Bucks35c148,571$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,999.5343542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bucks34c141,168$48,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,473.851,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bucks41c131,110$53,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,754.9587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks37c108,510$40,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,532.874,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic61c102,311$62,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,517.71,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic63c78,019$48,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,221.014,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic68c77,237$52,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,592.5666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Magic61c63,631$39,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,544.9517050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic64c56,400$36,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,304.0159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Magic66c45,455$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,454.9334456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Magic64c45,000$29,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,999.9854539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Magic61c42,345$25,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,514.69655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic70c40,141$28,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,101.782,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Magic59c36,061$21,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,717.5851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks35c34,032$11,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,999.142,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks35c33,336$11,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,611.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic62c25,360$15,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,592.36,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Bucks26c24,800$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,479.971,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed Magic67c24,300$16,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,0195750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Magic60c23,479$14,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,317.2519645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bucks24c22,964$5,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,547.491,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Bucks3c22,700$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.169629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Magic61c22,126$13,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,520.5621549.8%107 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bucks20c21,609$4,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,310.481,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks24c20,492$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,878.634,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ceb…7dfbbacked Bucks42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,4002646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Magic58c20,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Bucks14c20,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Magic62c18,658$11,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,101.7436359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Magic65c18,438$11,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,453.123946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Magic62c16,833$10,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,444.5124744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bucks43c16,690$7,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,221.011,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Bucks37c16,137$5,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,970.6930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Magic60c16,045$9,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,355.3619957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd47d…c0dcbacked Bucks42c16,000$6,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7201040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Magic65c15,969$10,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,589.1825546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Magic62c15,843$9,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.459054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bucks35c15,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.991,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Bucks42c14,300$6,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00610035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Magic58c14,300$8,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0069758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic60c13,075$7,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,208.912,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Magic59c12,554$7,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.2622143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Magic66c12,000$7,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.0295848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic59c11,997$7,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,889.0841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Magic59c11,700$6,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.064143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Magic65c11,680$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.5718553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic75c11,467$8,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.248,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa89a…8667backed Magic64c10,167$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,626.731675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Bucks38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80010641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Magic59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.1632039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bucks0c9,805$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.758820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c5…f9e9backed Bucks47c9,440$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5609…df51backed Magic53c9,430$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,432.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…2d0fbacked Bucks47c9,420$4,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,427.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Magic72c9,000$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.1917150.3%86 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Magic65c8,526$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.4148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd33a…c469backed Magic53c8,412$4,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic63c7,904$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.613,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Magic64c7,813$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.58662.8%54 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Bucks41c7,317$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.991,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Magic66c7,248$4,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.4820948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Bucks21c7,220$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.991,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6e4ebacked Bucks33c7,108$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,336.9716146%74 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Magic67c7,030$4,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3209345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Bucks14c6,539$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.5264944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Magic61c5,613$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,185.0231453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c5b…aab5backed Bucks15c5,457$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.437429.7%22 W · 52 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Magic59c5,370$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.8732540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Magic58c5,340$3,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.7161851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Bucks41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Magic66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.4119958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Bucks26c4,935$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.542,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Magic61c4,669$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.731,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Magic59c4,550$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.57850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Bucks1c4,547$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.985213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x175e…49b4backed Magic59c4,373$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.182937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ab…c40ebacked Magic65c4,358$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.331090%9 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+39.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Magic78c4,306$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.5542335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks38c4,003$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.893,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2b…34e4backed Magic65c3,770$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Magic73c3,750$2,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.420050.5%101 W · 99 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Magic66c3,715$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.166944.9%31 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Magic78c3,690$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.4630157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic58c3,680$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.61,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Magic65c3,676$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.916370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Magic63c3,538$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.413348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks25c3,527$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.383,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Bucks35c3,429$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Magic59c3,422$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.3936351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic71c3,303$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.871,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…9841backed Magic53c3,296$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bucks34c3,255$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.5310530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6f…2fafbacked Bucks42c3,200$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…8494backed Magic58c3,200$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+46.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks17c3,187$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.851,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Bucks40c3,020$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.1842645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a2…db39backed Magic66c3,018$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.181118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.33per pick51cpaid-67.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Magic57c3,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30061336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c32…e11dbacked Bucks35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.