NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x453570789d58f4c06b38638c4ed304ae2998ece97ad3124e3e83ed75ca8103cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,575 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Magic | 48c | 16,000$7,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,293.82 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 50c | 14,048$6,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,972.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks | 52c | 9,395$4,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.89 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 52c | 7,778$4,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,763.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Magic | 53c | 6,510$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.7 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Magic | 53c | 4,803$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.05 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 51c | 4,416$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,177.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 3,976$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Magic | 53c | 3,270$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.66 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bucks | 52c | 3,000$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.5 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Bucks | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 50c | 2,670$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.59 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Magic | 54c | 2,495$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.51 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Bucks | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 51c | 1,600$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 51c | 1,017$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.43 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Magic | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Bucks | 54c | 762.23$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed Bucks | 45c | 698.17$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.18 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Magic | 46c | 622$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.88 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…2bb7backed Magic | 56c | 447.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.13 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Bucks | 46c | 377.36$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Magic | 61c | 362.41$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Magic | 52c | 279.16$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bucks | 44c | 277$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Bucks | 54c | 216.91$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Magic | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 48c | 209$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks | 50c | 197.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Bucks | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bucks | 45c | 125.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Magic | 48c | 122.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Bucks | 44c | 122.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks | 54c | 118.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bucks | 49c | 118.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Magic | 56c | 110.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Magic | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bucks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Magic | 55c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Bucks | 44c | 97.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Bucks | 47c | 88.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bucks | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Magic | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Bucks | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Magic | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Magic | 53c | 57.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Bucks | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Magic | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Bucks | 46c | 32.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Bucks | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Bucks | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Bucks | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Bucks | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Bucks | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Bucks | 46c | 26.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Bucks | 51c | 23.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Bucks | 49c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Magic | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. BucksMagic won
- Magic vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.