NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1839acfca5f56ce8989f9ad4ab2ab9688ae5eefa25a86565244337b349302212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,622 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Bucks | 49c | 113,526$55,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,627.64 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Magic | 52c | 40,296$20,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,342.31 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Magic | 52c | 15,607$8,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,491.14 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Magic | 51c | 12,291$6,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,022.83 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…422bbacked Magic | 51c | 10,373$5,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,082.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Magic | 51c | 10,099$5,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.45 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Bucks | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Bucks | 48c | 9,251$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Magic | 51c | 8,732$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,278.68 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Magic | 51c | 8,682$4,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.32 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 48c | 8,576$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.11 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Magic | 51c | 7,035$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,447.29 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Bucks | 48c | 6,459$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Magic | 51c | 5,786$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,835.14 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…9b8abacked Magic | 51c | 5,748$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,816.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Magic | 51c | 5,321$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.29 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Magic | 51c | 4,905$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.41 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Magic | 51c | 4,564$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.36 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Magic | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.78 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 48c | 3,199$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 52c | 2,892$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.52 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Magic | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.28 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Bucks | 48c | 2,345$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.6 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 51c | 2,224$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Magic | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.07 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Bucks | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 52c | 1,354$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.41 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Bucks | 48c | 1,225$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.24 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 53c | 1,035$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.25 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 52c | 695.32$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Magic | 51c | 470.59$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.59 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Bucks | 48c | 416.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Magic | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Bucks | 36c | 334$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Bucks | 48c | 290$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…8809backed Magic | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Magic | 52c | 249$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f0…fff4backed Magic | 75c | 206.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Magic | 51c | 200.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Magic | 51c | 182.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 48c | 153.8$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Magic | 70c | 134.71$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Magic | 64c | 114$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Bucks | 48c | 108.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Bucks | 48c | 102.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 57c | 94.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Magic | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…f754backed Bucks | 43c | 93.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bucks | 47c | 86.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Magic | 53c | 84.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Magic | 60c | 76.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Magic | 51c | 73.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Magic | 51c | 67.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Bucks | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…3aa2backed Bucks | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 42.9%103 W · 137 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…2806backed Magic | 78c | 47.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Magic | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Magic | 51c | 44.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bucks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Magic | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bucks | 39c | 33.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Magic | 51c | 31.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Magic | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Magic | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Bucks | 48c | 26.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Magic | 51c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…7b90backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Magic | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)this page
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. BucksMagic won
- Magic vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.