TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,593 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed Under54c2,047$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.791,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over43c1,067$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.594,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over54c880.23$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.082,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under57c839.21$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.156,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c633.99$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.429,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under46c600$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2763,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Under61c489.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Under47c471$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.3720536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over39c262$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.824,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under44c249.42$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.21,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over46c211.44$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.181,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c187.09$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.372,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under11c180$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.223047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over53c164.91$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5191846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over64c153.38$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.711,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over38c152.53$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.573,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…022dbacked Over47c123.19$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.293053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Over47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.624428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Over47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.383727%10 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over55c86.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.813,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Over47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.43141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Over48c71.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0511748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over46c67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Over56c66.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4745452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under30c58.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3765630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over51c56.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.821,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Over47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1927050%135 W · 135 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Over47c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0953839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over41c52.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3122453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Under59c52.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116555.2%91 W · 74 L-12.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7045…f88bbacked Over47c40.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.482259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…1f45backed Over50c39.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc29b…6012backed Under50c36.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Under52c34.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0412151.2%62 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Over47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9632747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9662049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Over47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9627345.1%123 W · 150 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Over47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9632947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over49c28.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5414264.8%92 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8823350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under51c20.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.