NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37756550b5b0dd01fc8e24d4b552763d5a726ba0a2f31ba36fbf0114b7225070

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Bucks
Resolved: Mar 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $126,282

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf668…5c69backed Magic	56c	17,668$9,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,805.29	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Magic	53c	14,545$7,710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,834.93	170	50%85 W · 85 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	57c	13,858$7,832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,025.43	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks	47c	11,873$5,612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,612.3	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	47c	11,794$5,567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,566.76	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks	45c	10,066$4,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,529.77	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72a…c917backed Magic	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f4a…55d2backed Bucks	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic	58c	9,094$5,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,819.64	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Magic	51c	6,501$3,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,165.75	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic	55c	5,010$2,749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,260.1	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic	52c	5,000$2,618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,382.55	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic	54c	4,313$2,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,972.46	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Bucks	50c	3,006$1,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,502.88	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Bucks	44c	2,340$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.71	378	42.9%162 W · 216 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Magic	59c	1,985$1,171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$813.11	68	60.3%41 W · 27 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks	46c	1,700$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$778.77	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Magic	51c	1,659$846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$812.87	473	54.8%259 W · 214 L	+14.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Magic	54c	1,271$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.3	1,562	47.4%741 W · 821 L	-6.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bucks	42c	1,114$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.56	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bucks	44c	1,100$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks	49c	1,058$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.98	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Bucks	44c	1,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	314	55.1%173 W · 141 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Magic	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	285	54.7%156 W · 129 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Magic	51c	944.99$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.05	215	49.8%107 W · 108 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks	44c	828.71$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.65	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Bucks	49c	661.22$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324	492	46.3%228 W · 264 L	-15.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Bucks	44c	472.5$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.9	136	38.2%52 W · 84 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Magic	51c	470.59$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.59	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Magic	50c	325$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.5	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Bucks	49c	300$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Bucks	50c	276.15$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.31	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…dda7backed Magic	53c	269.94$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.87	242	47.1%114 W · 128 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Bucks	47c	255.65$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.15	205	36.6%75 W · 130 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Bucks	49c	252.89$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.92	405	46.9%190 W · 215 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Bucks	42c	247.89$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.04	558	46.8%261 W · 297 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Bucks	43c	200$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Magic	58c	198.06$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.22	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bucks	45c	175$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.75	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Magic	58c	168.96$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.34	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Magic	58c	162.92$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.57	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks	45c	156$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks	47c	149.15$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.71	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Bucks	42c	140.82$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.04	358	43.6%156 W · 202 L	-8.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bucks	49c	120.44$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.84	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Bucks	44c	112.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.63	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Bucks	44c	111.11$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.84	970	49.5%480 W · 490 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Magic	59c	105.26$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.16	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Bucks	50c	101$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Bucks	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Magic	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Bucks	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Magic	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.03	339	49.9%169 W · 170 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Magic	58c	95.68$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.34	140	46.4%65 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Bucks	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Magic	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	649	44.7%290 W · 359 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Bucks	44c	63.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8c…664cbacked Bucks	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Bucks	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae9f…4967backed Magic	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Magic	53c	48.32$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.61	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Magic	57c	42.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.19	92	42.4%39 W · 53 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Magic	59c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.41	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Bucks	42c	35.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Bucks	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Bucks	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	327	47.4%155 W · 172 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Bucks	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	620	49%304 W · 316 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Bucks	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	273	45.1%123 W · 150 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Bucks	44c	34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	329	47.4%156 W · 173 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Magic	53c	33.96$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x788c…4a44backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Bucks	48c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	533	39.6%211 W · 322 L	-39.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff5e…a98cbacked Magic	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Magic	50c	26.03$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc826…3c91backed Magic	50c	24.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Bucks	41c	24.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Magic	52c	23.79$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.42	173	48.6%84 W · 89 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	58c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed Bucks	45c	22.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	1,084	42.4%460 W · 624 L	-48.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc816…4b74backed Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…5dd5backed Bucks	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	251	43.4%109 W · 142 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3c16backed Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e78…11ffbacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf106…e879backed Bucks	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)this page
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Magic vs. BucksMagic won
Magic vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
Myles Turner: Points O/U 8.5No won
Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event