TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,909 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd92…6b2abacked Under50c40,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00012639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over50c30,594$15,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,255.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over51c20,507$10,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,048.441,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,8001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Over77c19,000$14,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3706860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under23c18,978$4,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.942,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over50c14,241$7,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,120.522,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over50c12,395$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,197.352,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00021653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over50c8,689$4,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,311.961,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0009343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c7,140$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,492.794,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Over50c5,060$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,53029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c4,755$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.482,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c4,458$2,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.113,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over52c4,200$2,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under45c3,992$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.434,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over55c3,577$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.812,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c2,332$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.763,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c2,154$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.029,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over50c1,663$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd3…3996backed Under50c1,363$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over50c1,142$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.082,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf594…bfc1backed Over51c1,112$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.659553.7%51 W · 44 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over55c1,104$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4972,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over24c912.33$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.5120536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…2579backed Under79c833$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.076872.1%49 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20022746.3%105 W · 122 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Under50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Under5c399.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188027.5%22 W · 58 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under70c399.1$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3776054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over50c377.09$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.551,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Over51c366.13$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.440546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed Over52c351.54$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7412151.2%62 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…8809backed Under50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011157.7%64 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10091148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0826956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0814156.7%80 W · 61 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under55c193.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.661,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over51c156.1$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4983158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over51c146.82$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.881,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over45c118.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.913,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b2b…1477backed Over19c117.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2712749.6%63 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Over53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4728056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5035739.8%142 W · 215 L-25.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Over45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5558754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over51c99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Over52c94.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2823349.4%115 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3495452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4023657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Over22c80$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.433159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over51c70.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.91,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over43c69.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7340344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under69c64.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7537755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4d31backed Over50c55.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6910252%53 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under55c55.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.565630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb83d…3aa2backed Under50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524042.9%103 W · 137 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under50c48.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4114144.7%63 W · 78 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over29c44.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4455751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Under50c41.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8141649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2015041.3%62 W · 88 L-8.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Under71c36.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7514640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10e…4c13backed Under49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1520949.3%103 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Over36c34.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7311826.3%31 W · 87 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under50c31.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7287744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1546447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc467…4cc3backed Over50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over50c28.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0552552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.523350.6%118 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd875…ad68backed Under50c24.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128167.9%55 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Over50c23.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7776250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over50c22.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0514471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Under68c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2332866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Under67c20.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5516369.9%114 W · 49 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.