NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9add75fbe86974139bbe660dbee012fb7d73275adce2238d6f07760d1e43cbba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,039 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Magic | 59c | 53,427$31,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,775.4 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 42c | 29,186$12,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,205.53 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 41c | 14,085$5,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,835.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Magic | 59c | 10,869$6,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,415.97 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Magic | 60c | 7,078$4,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,818.8 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 55c | 5,684$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,534.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Bucks | 40c | 2,772$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.8 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bucks | 40c | 2,263$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.2 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Bucks | 40c | 2,056$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.42 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bucks | 43c | 1,890$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 44c | 1,849$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.75 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 40c | 1,800$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bucks | 39c | 1,722$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.58 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bucks | 43c | 1,230$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.93 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Bucks | 39c | 1,190$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.09 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Magic | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bucks | 41c | 898.48$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.2 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Magic | 56c | 877$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.88 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Bucks | 46c | 819.77$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.09 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bucks | 40c | 818$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.2 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Magic | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bucks | 41c | 780.74$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Bucks | 40c | 777.5$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Bucks | 40c | 771$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.4 | 544 | 43%234 W · 310 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Bucks | 39c | 580.21$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Bucks | 40c | 491.26$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Bucks | 40c | 406$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 40c | 369.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bucks | 40c | 354.27$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.88 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Bucks | 40c | 272.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Magic | 61c | 262.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Bucks | 39c | 257.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Magic | 60c | 257.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Bucks | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Magic | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Bucks | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Bucks | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bucks | 41c | 182.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bucks | 42c | 175$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bucks | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Bucks | 41c | 131.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Bucks | 44c | 124.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Bucks | 40c | 121.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Bucks | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Bucks | 42c | 119.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…16b0backed Magic | 61c | 103.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Magic | 61c | 101.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Bucks | 44c | 101.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bucks | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bucks | 38c | 99.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Magic | 56c | 93.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…5846backed Magic | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bucks | 35c | 75.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Magic | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Bucks | 46c | 59.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Bucks | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Magic | 61c | 46.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Bucks | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Bucks | 39c | 43.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Bucks | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Bucks | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Bucks | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Bucks | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 273 | 45.1%123 W · 150 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Bucks | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Magic | 77c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Bucks | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…0075backed Bucks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. BucksMagic won
- Magic vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.