TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,244

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,244 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xada5…db70backed Over46c5,460$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.6551354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under51c3,906$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.3326637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over44c2,803$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.684,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under54c2,072$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.249,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under56c1,759$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.432,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Over48c1,367$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.8256646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c1,015$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over52c993.06$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.571,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under5c988.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.061,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under47c770.81$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under53c743$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.796,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2163,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c494.74$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over47c486$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.581,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under26c478.1$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9953149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under53c368.75$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.524,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabc1…eaa0backed Over45c351.78$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under53c191.92$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4264651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over46c185.37$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.11,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…9141backed Under55c182.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over64c177.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.72,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over46c167.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.291,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2254…e6e5backed Over69c130.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.864734%16 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe285…5754backed Under55c124.43$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba08…21f1backed Under55c115.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.281450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce09…a251backed Under55c112.93$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.111553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over53c98.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.713,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over45c79.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.792,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976b…cf45backed Under71c78.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.911376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under56c75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4227463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over59c74.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.971,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Under54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013938.8%54 W · 85 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over50c73.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under54c64.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.951,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under55c61.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.83,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over78c56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.322,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2716141.6%67 W · 94 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over44c47.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.83,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.821,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over47c36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0846447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over72c31.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9887744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over46c30.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.522453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over45c29.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2420536.6%75 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Over50c29.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5937652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under55c29.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1645452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db2…cc8cbacked Over73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.417153.8%92 W · 79 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over46c25.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6275…4e76backed Under56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over55c18.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1991846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.