NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc35a25f8f5b38285aa8418c70d2454b83ca1a8bbf49561b1b93bfb1b5d2e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,244 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 46c | 5,460$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.65 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 51c | 3,906$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.33 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 2,803$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 2,072$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 1,759$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.43 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 48c | 1,367$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.82 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 1,015$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 52c | 993.06$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.57 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 5c | 988.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 770.81$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 743$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 494.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 47c | 486$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 26c | 478.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 368.75$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed Over | 45c | 351.78$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 191.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 185.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Under | 55c | 182.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 177.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 167.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…e6e5backed Over | 69c | 130.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Under | 55c | 124.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…21f1backed Under | 55c | 115.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Under | 55c | 112.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 98.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 79.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976b…cf45backed Under | 71c | 78.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 59c | 74.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 50c | 73.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 54c | 64.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 55c | 61.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 161 | 41.6%67 W · 94 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 47.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 72c | 31.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 46c | 30.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 45c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 50c | 29.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 55c | 29.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cc8cbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 46c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…4e76backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5this page
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Kevin Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Magic vs. BucksMagic won
- Magic vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 216.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 217.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 219.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5Over won
- Magic vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Myles Turner: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Ryan Rollins: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.