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Champions League · resolved market

Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,189 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under78c62,654$49,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,529.282,10143.6%917 W · 1,184 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over19c49,860$9,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,473.4628747.4%136 W · 151 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…0beebacked Over28c8,434$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.773050%15 W · 15 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a94…769cbacked Over19c5,053$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9603625%9 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over20c3,860$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.7613245.5%60 W · 72 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over19c3,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.994020%8 W · 32 L-9.4wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-59.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Under64c2,823$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.853158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Under51c2,514$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.591560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2196…da90backed Over20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c2,228$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.2646048.5%223 W · 237 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under80c2,162$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Over24c1,954$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.9310051%51 W · 49 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under79c1,825$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3258248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under80c1,336$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.6126047.7%124 W · 136 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Over21c1,249$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.325927.1%16 W · 43 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…1c79backed Under67c1,016$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Under46c1,004$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.983046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over19c999.95$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.997133.8%24 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8973…c6debacked Over20c975.9$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1250%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Over54c949.94$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf695…da5abacked Over21c948.02$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over20c940$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18829350.5%148 W · 145 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dca…ce96backed Over56c891.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over22c848.8$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5510248%49 W · 53 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over43c825.38$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.928043.8%35 W · 45 L+11.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Over55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ee…f7a7backed Under80c724.36$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.784100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Under46c724$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.071241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Under47c717.02$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.021070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Over56c716$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.961747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ac…a09bbacked Under47c682.94$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over26c653.85$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaec…f856backed Under73c649.97$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.91861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x837b…cdebbacked Over52c599.98$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under48c596.42$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.428862.5%55 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Over56c535.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+55.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed Under57c526.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+48.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over53c516.98$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2742853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Under80c501.96$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.925123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013234.1%45 W · 87 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Over54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2703966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over45c481.18$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over39c468.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18520639.3%81 W · 125 L+25.6wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Over20c463.6$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.592948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over55c399.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9920655.3%114 W · 92 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over42c370.38$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9618648.9%91 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over20c369.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4341551.1%212 W · 203 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029540.3%119 W · 176 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005655.4%31 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over23c319.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.71,59639.8%636 W · 960 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed Under80c315$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.182437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x140d…a937backed Over32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6922647.3%107 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Under80c300$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605052%26 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over44c296.78$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4640253.7%216 W · 186 L+22.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a2…8c84backed Over38c289.24$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5a…344cbacked Over55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc8c…b5ebbacked Over56c263.71$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Over19c259.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.49843.9%43 W · 55 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over47c256.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12014145.4%64 W · 77 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under77c252.02$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.161752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012242.6%52 W · 70 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Over56c242.64$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.886056.7%34 W · 26 L+8.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over20c224.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5215847.5%75 W · 83 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed Over20c215.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.111741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over21c214.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7623637.3%88 W · 148 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5752…e85fbacked Over19c211.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Over40c206.53$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef20…c46abacked Over56c204.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+68%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Under50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed Over34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+54.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8c…8293backed Under53c198.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.471668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under72c193$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3515038.7%58 W · 92 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd418…d11fbacked Under48c190.94$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.92875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+97.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa179…258ebacked Under58c189.91$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.911560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over36c189.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Over57c174.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005058%29 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Over19c173.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.961723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x34f1…5fd6backed Over56c172.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Over43c172.42$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.141540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0df…8cacbacked Over44c170.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over19c169.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.841216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4796…79fcbacked Over20c166.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.113043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf830…c2dbbacked Over45c158.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under79c155.98$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.210164.4%65 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Over9c150.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.535125.5%13 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x295a…bdedbacked Over20c143.75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72b…0247backed Over56c142.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-67.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under75c140.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9220042.5%85 W · 115 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over30c122.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9325735%90 W · 167 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over37c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.74555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb6…efb6backed Over22c119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8597…0c0ebacked Over20c118$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…032dbacked Over43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over56c112$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9115936.5%58 W · 101 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.