Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x722e89e76f860438bb969f5d5bcb51dc30b3f9a421657ccc34223af9a7f450cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Manchester City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,973 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 3,900$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,457.97 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 2,493$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.03 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 1,334$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 1,327$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.24 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 1,218$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.26 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Real Madrid CF | 18c | 1,056$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.81 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Manchester City FC | 53c | 999.57$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.77 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…4eb5backed Manchester City FC | 50c | 997.77$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…f68ebacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 840.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 731.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.09 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Real Madrid CF | 10c | 530.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.19 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…4ce5backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.03 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…e795backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 456.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 433.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.24 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 423.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…0244backed Real Madrid CF | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Manchester City FC | 66c | 400$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Manchester City FC | 24c | 390.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Manchester City FC | 42c | 372.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 236 | 37.3%88 W · 148 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…f5e2backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 347.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,405.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…c5cdbacked Real Madrid CF | 11c | 295.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 271.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Real Madrid CF | 76c | 270$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Manchester City FC | 10c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 231.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.59 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Real Madrid CF | 10c | 200.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Real Madrid CF | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Manchester City FC | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…8194backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Real Madrid CF | 22c | 170.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…5db5backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 166$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Real Madrid CF | 47c | 163.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Real Madrid CF | 42c | 152.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…8c3ebacked Real Madrid CF | 11c | 135.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +35%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 121.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…c0d1backed Real Madrid CF | 12c | 112$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Real Madrid CF | 11c | 100.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Real Madrid CF | 12c | 100.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Real Madrid CF | 61c | 98.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…8ebdbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Real Madrid CF | 13c | 92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Real Madrid CF | 38c | 88.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 150 | 38.7%58 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbd…191dbacked Manchester City FC | 53c | 84.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Manchester City FC | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Manchester City FC | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Manchester City FC | 53c | 64.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Real Madrid CF | 49c | 64.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ea…95d1backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed Real Madrid CF | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Manchester City FC | 33c | 51.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed Real Madrid CF | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Real Madrid CF | 50c | 48.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Manchester City FC | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…8c4bbacked Manchester City FC | 53c | 37.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…04afbacked Real Madrid CF | 80c | 37.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed Real Madrid CF | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…cebfbacked Manchester City FC | 51c | 24.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…4786backed Real Madrid CF | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Manchester City FC | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.